Jeff SingerSep 9, 2024
Previewing the final 2024 primaries, Singer writes that several prominent candidates facing only token primary opposition are headed for easy general election victories: Lisa Blunt Rochester for Delaware's open Senate seat, Sarah McBride for Delaware's House seat, and Rhode Island's Sheldon Whitehouse, Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner for reelection.
Published in writing · The Downballot (newsletter)Read the original
5 of 5calls landed5 hits · all settled
100Average accuracyout of 100, across 5 calls
100A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
5Races calledevery call on each below
0Waitingnot graded yet
What Jeff Singer said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromSome of the most prominent candidates on the ballot Tuesday face only minor opposition, ahead of what will almost certainly be easy general election wins.
- Where it was published
- The Downballot (newsletter)
- The piece
- The Downballot presents our guide to the final primaries of the year!
- The original
- Read the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 9, 2024
- Election DayNov 5, 2024
- GradedOct 9, 2026
- 1Lisa Blunt Rochester to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Delaware“Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester is poised to become both the first woman and African American to represent Delaware in the Senate now that Democratic incumbent Tom Carper is retiring.”
- 2Sarah McBride to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Delaware's at-large district“State Sen. Sarah McBride, likewise, is on a glide path to succeed Blunt Rochester, an accomplishment that would make her the first openly trans person to ever serve in Congress.”
- 3Sheldon Whitehouse to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Rhode Island“In Rhode Island, meanwhile, the three congressional Democrats on the ballot—Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Reps. Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner—are also on track to easily win new terms.”
- 4Seth Magaziner to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 2“the three congressional Democrats on the ballot—Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Reps. Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner—are also on track to easily win new terms”
- 5Gabe Amo to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 1“the three congressional Democrats on the ballot—Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and Reps. Gabe Amo and Seth Magaziner—are also on track to easily win new terms”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Blunt Rochester to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Delaware1 | Race Winners | Lisa Blunt Rochester won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Sarah McBride to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Delaware's at-large district2 | Race Winners | Sarah McBride won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Sheldon Whitehouse to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Rhode Island3 | Race Winners | Sheldon Whitehouse won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Seth Magaziner to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 24 | Race Winners | Seth Magaziner won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Gabe Amo to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 15 | Race Winners | Gabe Amo won | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| 5 calls · 5 hits · all settled | 100 | 100 | ||||
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 5 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Lisa Blunt Rochester to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Delaware
What happenedLisa Blunt Rochester woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.08difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-de
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Lisa Blunt Rochester
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Delaware
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Lisa Blunt Rochester
- days before the vote when called:
- 56
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Sarah McBride to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Delaware's at-large district
What happenedSarah McBride woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.08difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-de-al
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Sarah McBride
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Delaware's at-large district
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Sarah McBride
- days before the vote when called:
- 56
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Sheldon Whitehouse to win the 2024 U.S. Senate election in Rhode Island
What happenedSheldon Whitehouse woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.08difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-ri
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Sheldon Whitehouse
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Rhode Island
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Sheldon Whitehouse
- days before the vote when called:
- 56
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Seth Magaziner to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 2
What happenedSeth Magaziner woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.08difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ri-02
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Seth Magaziner
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Seth Magaziner
- days before the vote when called:
- 56
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
Gabe Amo to win the 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 1
What happenedGabe Amo woncertified result100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1.08difficulty=0skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ri-01
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Gabe Amo
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 1
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Gabe Amo
- days before the vote when called:
- 56
- difficulty:
- 1.08
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 5 settled calls, each counted once
100naive 100
The races in this take
every call on each- 2024 U.S. Senate election in DelawareLisa Blunt Rochester wonEvery call on it →
- 2024 U.S. House election in Delaware's at-large districtSarah McBride wonEvery call on it →
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Rhode IslandSheldon Whitehouse wonEvery call on it →
- 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 2Seth Magaziner wonEvery call on it →
- 2024 U.S. House election in Rhode Island's district 1Gabe Amo wonEvery call on it →
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.