Jim Geraghty· Sep 25, 2024
Walking through his Senate map, Geraghty said Jim Justice is all but certain to win West Virginia's Senate race, and he dismissed talk of a Democratic upset over Deb Fischer in Nebraska, noting Democrats had not spent money there.
“Jim Justice, who is almost certainly going to win the senate race in West Virginia.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Megyn Kelly Show · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersSep 25, 2024
“they keep hearing that in Wyoming, Deb Fisher's in trouble. I'm sorry, Nebraska... Nebraska is a much cheaper state. They still haven't put any money there, so I'm kinda skeptical the Democrats are like, oh, this guy, who nobody's ever heard of is about to pull off the upset of the century.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-ne
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Deb Fischer
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Deb Fischer
- days before the vote when called:
- 40
- difficulty:
- 1.05
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersSep 25, 2024
“And, Jim Justice, who is almost certainly going to win the senate race in West Virginia. That gets Republicans to 50 states.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+105 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-wv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 105
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Independent
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Jim Justice
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jim Justice
- days before the vote when called:
- 40
- difficulty:
- 1.05
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.
- Doug SchoenRace WinnersHit · 100Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.