Logan Phillips· Nov 4, 2024

Phillips said the Selzer Iowa poll is most likely wrong and that he still expects Trump to carry Iowa, though he raised Harris's chances there from about 2% to roughly 20-25%. He also gave Republicans about a two-in-three chance of winning the Senate majority and put Bob Casey at 80% in Pennsylvania's Senate race, calling McCormick an underdog.

“There's still a pathway for it to happen, but you know, they're underdogs. Two and three shots you hold onto the Senate maybe a touch more.”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 race winners and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“I don't think she's right that he's gonna win it. But before I viewed it as a safe race, Mount model had it a two percent chance for them... Now I have it up to around twenty or you know, twenty five.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ia
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Now I have it up to around twenty or you know, twenty five
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 4, 2024
“There's still a pathway for it to happen, but you know, they're underdogs. Two and three shots you hold onto the Senate maybe a touch more.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
in their words:
Two and three shots you hold onto the Senate maybe a touch more
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 4, 2024
“Pennsylvania is like a fifty to fifty state for the presidentially my model, it's eighty percent for the Senate... So he's an underdog. He's done a good job against Casey”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
it's eighty percent for the Senate
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Robert P. Casey Jr.
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.