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Writes at The Inside Elections Podcast
Is Nathan Gonzales accurate? Across 10 graded calls in 2 articles, Nathan Gonzales scores 97.22% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 55.25, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“as well as the Pennsylvania senate race between Democrat Bob Casey junior and Republican Dave McCormack. We'd left those in our tilt Democratic category.”
“you guys just shifted Virginia seven to tilt democratic”
“our outlook in the senate is pretty favorable to Republicans. They need a net gain of two seats to reclaim the majority, and we have them favored.”
“Our likely projection is any... Is a net gain of two to four seats for Republicans.”
“you moved the Zach Nunn race... from toss-up to tilt republican... Now Nunn... he has repaired that image.”
“I forget which one you guys have, Virginia seven... Virginia two right now. Tilt republican.”
“moving Texas from lean Republican to tilt Republican, which is just one step away from toss-up”
“We've left the Wisconsin senate race between Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde... in our tilt Democratic category.”
“We have it as tilt Republican, and and we're all gonna be watching those Virginia districts”
“Ranking how certain we are about outcomes in the twenty twenty four elections, a Republican controlled senate, I think is the most... It's not a guarantee, but it's it's the most certain”