Nathan Gonzales· Nov 1, 2024

Gonzales said Republicans are favored to win the Senate majority, with Inside Elections' likely projection a GOP net gain of two to four seats, and moved Texas to tilt Republican while keeping Pennsylvania and Wisconsin tilt Democratic. He also laid out the House projection range and the firm's Iowa and Virginia ratings.

“Our likely projection is any... Is a net gain of two to four seats for Republicans.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Inside Elections Podcast · read the original →

9 checkable claims — 6 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

8 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 87.5 out of 100, against 65 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

9 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 1, 2024
“Our likely projection is any... Is a net gain of two to four seats for Republicans.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 20+80 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
53
skill:
80
topic:
elections
what happened:
4
in their words:
a net gain of two to four seats for Republicans
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
what they counted:
net_seats
accuracy:
100
baseline:
20
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
seats before:
49
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
their range:
2,4
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 1, 2024
“our outlook in the senate is pretty favorable to Republicans. They need a net gain of two seats to reclaim the majority, and we have them favored.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
in their words:
our outlook in the senate is pretty favorable to Republicans... we have them favored
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“you guys just shifted Virginia seven to tilt democratic”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-va-07
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
tilt democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Eugene Vindman
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Eugene Vindman
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“as well as the Pennsylvania senate race between Democrat Bob Casey junior and Republican Dave McCormack. We'd left those in our tilt Democratic category.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-senate-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
tilt Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Dave McCormick
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Robert P. Casey Jr.
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“We've left the Wisconsin senate race between Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde... in our tilt Democratic category.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
tilt Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tammy Baldwin
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tammy Baldwin
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“moving Texas from lean Republican to tilt Republican, which is just one step away from toss-up”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“I forget which one you guys have, Virginia seven... Virginia two right now. Tilt republican.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-va-02
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Tilt republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Jen Kiggans
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jen Kiggans
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2024
“you moved the Zach Nunn race... from toss-up to tilt republican... Now Nunn... he has repaired that image.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-house-ia-03
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
tilt republican
result from:
wikipedia-2024-house
who won:
Zach Nunn
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. House election in Iowa's district 3
decided in the:
general
they said:
Zach Nunn
days before the vote when called:
3
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 1, 2024
“we see the most likely outcome is anywhere from a Democratic net gain of nine seats to a Republican net gain of a single seat”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.