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Writes at Steve Deace Show
Across 12 graded calls in 2 articles, Rich Baris scores 75.83% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 18.2, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
They hedged 40% of their claims — a “probably”, a “could”, a “wouldn’t be surprised”.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“Spanberger in in Virginia seven, I think she's, I think she's gone. I really do.”
“We have it as the most likely is around... It's 52 seats.”
“The margin, you know, I think that it's a solid if, you know, people low as 15, 20 seats. I think that's on the low end.”
“I think it's a foregone conclusion, that the Republican Party will take the house.”
“I actually think that that's one that, that, you know, the Democrats gonna hold on in, but we'll see.”
“But I think Joe Lombardo and, Adam Laxalt are both, poised to win, defeat Democratic incumbents.”
“really, Florida is not competitive. That's probably a safe, that's probably a safe race for Republicans... Ron DeSantis was unbeatable this year.”
“And by the way, Georgia too. We're moving that to the likely column. The truth is Kemp was always likely to be reelected”
“But I think Joe Lombardo and, Adam Laxalt are both, poised to win, defeat Democratic incumbents.”
“There's an independent candidate there that's taking double digits anywhere from a low of 12 to a high of 17, and that allows her to slip in with 42 to 45% of the vote.”
“Next door for governor, we have Drais in favor to win that seat.”
“Wisconsin, which everybody thought was going to be close. Mhmm. Ron Johnson looks, you know, like he's sailing away here.”