Rich Baris· Nov 7, 2022

Barris called Republicans taking the House a foregone conclusion with a seat gain he put at the low end around 15-20, projected Republicans at about 52 Senate seats, said Abigail Spanberger would lose in Virginia's 7th, and expected Democrats to hold Virginia's 10th.

“I think it's a foregone conclusion, that the Republican Party will take the house.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Rising (The Hill) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 2 race winners, 2 seat counts and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 62 out of 100, against 67 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“Spanberger in in Virginia seven, I think she's, I think she's gone. I really do.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-house-va-07
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Abigail A. Spanberger
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 7
decided in the:
general
they said:
Yesli I. Vega
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 7, 2022
“We have it as the most likely is around... It's 52 seats.”
Close · 40Scored 40a naive guess scored 80-40 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
49
skill:
−40
topic:
elections
what happened:
49
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2022-senate
what they counted:
seats held
accuracy:
40
baseline:
80
they said:
52
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
50
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 7, 2022
“The margin, you know, I think that it's a solid if, you know, people low as 15, 20 seats. I think that's on the low end.”
Close · 70Scored 70a naive guess scored 55+15 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2022
party:
Republican
seats after:
222
skill:
15
topic:
elections
what happened:
9
in their words:
as low as 15, 20 seats. I think that's on the low end
read as:
as written
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
what they counted:
net seats
accuracy:
70
baseline:
55
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2022-11-08
their range:
15 to 20
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 7, 2022
“I think it's a foregone conclusion, that the Republican Party will take the house.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 7, 2022
“I actually think that that's one that, that, you know, the Democrats gonna hold on in, but we'll see.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-house-va-10
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Jennifer T. Wexton
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 10
decided in the:
general
they said:
Jennifer T. Wexton
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.