Rich Baris· Nov 1, 2022

Baris forecast a Republican wipeout, saying Christine Drazan would win the Oregon governorship with 42-45% of the vote, that Lombardo and Laxalt would both beat Democratic incumbents in Nevada, that Ron Johnson was cruising in Wisconsin, and that Florida and Georgia were safe/likely Republican holds.

“I think Joe Lombardo and, Adam Laxalt are both, poised to win, defeat Democratic incumbents.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Steve Deace Show · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 7 have settled, averaging 71.4 out of 100, against 76.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“But I think Joe Lombardo and, Adam Laxalt are both, poised to win, defeat Democratic incumbents.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“really, Florida is not competitive. That's probably a safe, that's probably a safe race for Republicans... Ron DeSantis was unbeatable this year.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
probably a safe race for Republicans
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“And by the way, Georgia too. We're moving that to the likely column. The truth is Kemp was always likely to be reelected”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
the likely column
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“But I think Joe Lombardo and, Adam Laxalt are both, poised to win, defeat Democratic incumbents.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Joe Lombardo
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Nevada gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joe Lombardo
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 1, 2022
“There's an independent candidate there that's taking double digits anywhere from a low of 12 to a high of 17, and that allows her to slip in with 42 to 45% of the vote.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 36+64.64 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-or
election year:
2022
skill:
64.64
topic:
elections
what happened:
43.6
in their words:
42 to 45% of the vote
read as:
as written
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tina Kotek
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
share of the vote
whose number:
Christine Drazan
accuracy:
100
baseline:
36
race name:
2022 Oregon gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
they won:
no
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
3.4
their party:
Republican
their range:
42 to 45
the naive guess said:
50
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“Next door for governor, we have Drais in favor to win that seat.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-or
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Tina Kotek
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Oregon gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Christine Drazan
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“Wisconsin, which everybody thought was going to be close. Mhmm. Ron Johnson looks, you know, like he's sailing away here.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.