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Writes at Rising (The Hill)
Is Robby Soave accurate? Across 8 graded calls in 2 articles, Robby Soave scores 76.5% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 12.25, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“I have Kamala Harris winning Pennsylvania.”
“she will hold on to those three blue wall states”
“he's gonna flip back Arizona... because he's gonna take, Nevada and Arizona and Georgia”
“So I'm predicting the very narrowest possible win, two seventy to two sixty eight. Kamala Harris taking it.”
“he's gonna take, Nevada and Arizona and Georgia, but that will not be quite enough to win”
“she will hold on to those three blue wall states”
“my prediction is that, he does take Nevada where Kamala Harris is currently projected to win”
“Because Trump, I think is very unlikely to actually lose Iowa, but, you know, Iowa correlates with Wisconsin, some other states.”