Robby Soave· Nov 5, 2024

Soave forecast the narrowest possible Electoral College outcome, 270-268 for Kamala Harris, with Harris holding the three blue wall states including Pennsylvania while Trump flips Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.

“So I'm predicting the very narrowest possible win, two seventy to two sixty eight.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Rising (The Hill) · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 7 have settled, averaging 50.9 out of 100, against 8.1 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“she will hold on to those three blue wall states”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-wi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“my prediction is that, he does take Nevada where Kamala Harris is currently projected to win”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“she will hold on to those three blue wall states”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“he's gonna take, Nevada and Arizona and Georgia, but that will not be quite enough to win”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I have Kamala Harris winning Pennsylvania.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“So I'm predicting the very narrowest possible win, two seventy to two sixty eight. Kamala Harris taking it.”
Close · 56Scored 56a naive guess scored 57-1 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
-1
topic:
elections
what happened:
226
in their words:
two seventy to two sixty eight
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
100
what they counted:
electoral_votes
whose number:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
56
baseline:
57
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
270
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
no
the naive guess:
half the electoral college
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
86
their party:
Democratic
the naive guess said:
269
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“he's gonna flip back Arizona... because he's gonna take, Nevada and Arizona and Georgia”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.