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Writes at Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang)
Is Sam Wang accurate? Across 12 graded calls in 2 articles, Sam Wang scores 54.48% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -11.75, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
“Republicans might gain 2 seats (PA-7 and PA-8)”
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
“Trump will win Iowa by 12 points.”
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
“The Presidential race still depends on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Things are headed toward Trump, but it will take a day or two to play out.”
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
“Republicans might gain 2 seats (PA-7 and PA-8)”
“House seat prediction: 224 D (range: 216-232), 211 R (range: 203-222)”
“House seat prediction: 224 D (range: 216-232), 211 R (range: 203-222)”
“That corresponds to about an 8 in 9 probability that Democrats will win the popular vote – and take control of the House. This is consistent with Nancy Pelosi's public statement that she expects Democrats to regain the majority.”