Sam Wang· Nov 5, 2024
Live-blogging election night, Wang called Iowa for Trump by 12 points, said the presidential race was headed toward Trump, and read partial House returns as showing Democratic pickups in five districts and Republican pickups in two, with overall House control still undetermined.
“Things are headed toward Trump, but it will take a day or two to play out.”
published in writing · Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 8 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
All 9 have settled, averaging 76.4 out of 100, against 27.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
12They said
13.21What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“Trump will win Iowa by 12 points.”
Hit · 88Scored 87.9a naive guess scored 49.9+38 skillHow this was scored
- race:
- 2024-president-ia
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 38
- topic:
- elections
- what happened:
- 13.21
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- zero credit this far off:
- 10
- what they counted:
- margin_points
- whose number:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 87.9
- baseline:
- 49.9
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Iowa
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- 12
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- they won:
- yes
- the naive guess:
- the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the certified margin:
- 13.21
- their party:
- Republican
- the naive guess said:
- 8.2
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-house-ne-02
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Don Bacon
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Nebraska's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Tony Vargas
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ny-04
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Laura Gillen
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 4
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Laura Gillen
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ny-19
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Josh Riley
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 19
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Josh Riley
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ny-22
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- John Mannion
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 22
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- John Mannion
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“it appears that so far Democrats might gain 5 seats (NE-2, NY-4, NY-19, NY-22, VA-2)”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-house-va-02
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- -100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Jen Kiggans
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Virginia's district 2
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Missy Cotter Smasal
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Republicans might gain 2 seats (PA-7 and PA-8)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-pa-07
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Ryan Mackenzie
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 7
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ryan Mackenzie
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“Republicans might gain 2 seats (PA-7 and PA-8)”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-pa-08
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Rob Bresnahan
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Pennsylvania's district 8
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Rob Bresnahan
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“The Presidential race still depends on Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada. Things are headed toward Trump, but it will take a day or two to play out.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing as returns came in on election night, he declared that Republicans would control the Senate, with the size of the majority still unsettled, and said Jon Tester was expected to lose his Montana seat within hours.
- Erick-Woods EricksonRace WinnersHit · 100Writing on election night, he judged Trump to be on the brink of winning the presidency, and called Georgia and North Carolina for him.
- Carl CannonRace WinnersHit · 100Cannon said he half expects Republicans to take the Senate, treated the West Virginia seat as already lost to Democrats with Manchin leaving, and said Trump is poised to carry Ohio.
- Lanny DavisRace WinnersMiss · 0Davis argued that the closing campaign narrative turned negative for Trump, leaving him optimistic that Kamala Harris would win the presidency.
- Steve DeaceRace WinnersHit · 100On Election Day, Deace said he believes Trump will win the presidency, and that rather than a split decision across the seven battleground states, one candidate will sweep five, six or all of them. He also took the 'over' on Trump exceeding his 2016 popular-vote share of 46%.
- Henry OlsenRace WinnersHit · 100Olsen's final call: Harris narrowly wins the national popular vote while Trump wins the electoral college 297-241, taking six of the seven swing states, with Michigan the one he is least likely to crack. He also forecast Republicans ending with 54-55 Senate seats and holding a narrow House majority.