Sam Wang· Nov 5, 2024

Combining generic ballot polling with special election results, Wang gives Democrats roughly an 8-in-9 chance of winning the national House vote and taking the House majority, and projects a seat split of about 224 Democrats to 211 Republicans in a very closely divided chamber.

“That corresponds to about an 8 in 9 probability that Democrats will win the popular vote – and take control of the House.”

published in writing · Princeton Election Consortium (Sam Wang) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 2 seat counts and 1 chamber control — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 3 have settled, averaging 36.7 out of 100, against 93.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Their call against what happened

211They said

220What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Seat CountsNov 5, 2024
“House seat prediction: 224 D (range: 216-232), 211 R (range: 203-222)”
Close · 55Scored 55a naive guess scored 90-35 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Republican
seats after:
220
skill:
-35
topic:
elections
what happened:
220
in their words:
211 R (range: 203-222)
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
55
baseline:
90
they said:
211
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
222
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
222
Think this is wrong?
Chamber ControlNov 5, 2024
“That corresponds to about an 8 in 9 probability that Democrats will win the popular vote – and take control of the House. This is consistent with Nancy Pelosi's public statement that she expects Democrats to regain the majority.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
election year:
2024
skill:
-100
topic:
elections
in their words:
about an 8 in 9 probability that Democrats will win the popular vote – and take control of the House
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
they said:
Democratic
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Seat CountsNov 5, 2024
“House seat prediction: 224 D (range: 216-232), 211 R (range: 203-222)”
Close · 55Scored 55a naive guess scored 90-35 skill
How this was scored
election year:
2024
party:
Democratic
seats after:
215
skill:
-35
topic:
elections
what happened:
215
in their words:
224 D (range: 216-232)
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
what they counted:
total_seats
accuracy:
55
baseline:
90
they said:
224
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
seats before:
213
the naive guess:
no change from the previous election
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the naive guess said:
213
Think this is wrong?

More seat counts

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.