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Writes at Newt's World
Is Seth Keshel accurate? Across 15 graded calls in 1 article, Seth Keshel scores 94.55% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of 32.42, which means their calls were better than a naive guess on the same claims. That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below shows its own arithmetic.
“And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.”
“And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.”
“one hundred and twelve years of history suggests that Arizona is going to Trump too... there's the first time for everything, but I don't think it's this year”
“So I think that Nevada is pretty much baked at this point. I don't think that she has a chance to get back in the fight.”
“And that pegged me for Georgia at a Trump margin of five point six percent.”
“what needs to be done for Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me... it looks like we probably have enough to get Pennsylvania”
“I don't think Trump is going to win New York... I have a feeling that that numb is down in the low double digits, if not potentially inside ten”
“because Michigan to me looks like a three to four point Trump state right now”
“So I think North Carolina looks like at least four points.”
“And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.”
“and two are Trump leaners less than ten North Carolina and Texas”
“But with Minnesota, it's a very similar state in my analytics to Virginia. I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting”
“I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting”
“So Trump could be looking at numbers in Florida between twelve and fifteen points”
“And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.”