Race Margins

I think Donald's going to win by like 9 or 10 points, 8 or 9 points. I don't think it's that competitive.

I think Moody will probably win by 10 points or more.

Trump will win Iowa by 12 points.

In in 2016, Trump won with 46% of the popular vote because he won the electoral college. Do you guys believe he... Give me an over under. Does he go over or under that in the popular vote here today in this election? Over. Over. I I I think it's an easy over.

I've got, Harris up in the popular vote by about a point and some tenths

Trump up in the electoral college by two ninety seven to two forty one... we'll know who the president is on Wednesday morning, and that president will be Donald Trump.

But I think that Kamala Harris will win a narrow electoral college victory with 276 electoral votes.

He's gonna get about 47% tonight.

So I'm predicting the very narrowest possible win, two seventy to two sixty eight. Kamala Harris taking it.

Yeah, so you added actually two seventy two sixty eight right, like as narrow as possible. Yep, got it

My sense was around five percent.

So Trump could be looking at numbers in Florida between twelve and fifteen points

And that pegged me for Georgia at a Trump margin of five point six percent.

I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting

But with Minnesota, it's a very similar state in my analytics to Virginia. I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting

So I think North Carolina looks like at least four points.

because Michigan to me looks like a three to four point Trump state right now

project her to win 270 electoral votes

given that we think Trump wins Ohio by 8 again

to me, that that still looks like a three to five six point victory in Georgia to me. ... I don't know how she's gonna win Georgia.

where things were at in Iowa the way I thought that, you know, Trump should win between somewhere between five and eight or eight and ten points, the state of Iowa

I still believe at the end of the day, Trump is gonna knock on the door of winning the popular vote, which will be the first Republican who's done that in quite a while, and I believe he's a knock on the door of 300 electoral college votes.

This dude running for governor, Mark Robinson on the Republican side, is probably gonna lose, but definitely double digits, maybe fifteen, maybe twenty.

I've got at the top line, Donald Trump winning the election with two hundred and seventy one electoral votes, literally just one over what he needs to win two hundred and sixty seven there for Kamala Harris.

It's probably leaning to Trump by about one to two points, but that's gonna be a lot to overcome considering the situation.