Seth Keshel· Nov 5, 2024

Keshel forecast a broad Trump victory across the battlegrounds, saying a Harris win in Pennsylvania looks impossible, Michigan is a three-to-four point Trump state, Georgia goes Trump by 5.6 points, North Carolina by at least four, Florida by twelve to fifteen, and Nevada and Arizona fall to Trump as well; he rated New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota as Democratic leaners and Texas as a Trump leaner.

“It may have created a narrative for what needs to be done for Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me.”

said on air or in an interview · Newt's World · read the original →

15 checkable claims — 9 race winners and 6 race margins — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.

All 15 have settled, averaging 95.6 out of 100, against 63 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

15 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“So I think North Carolina looks like at least four points.”
Hit · 92Scored 92.1a naive guess scored 81.4+10.7 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-nc
election year:
2024
skill:
10.7
topic:
elections
what happened:
3.21
in their words:
at least four points
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
92.1
baseline:
81.4
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
3.21
their party:
Republican
their range:
4,100
the naive guess said:
1.35
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-mn
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Democrat leaners
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Minnesota
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“So Trump could be looking at numbers in Florida between twelve and fifteen points”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 2.6+97.4 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-fl
election year:
2024
skill:
97.4
topic:
elections
what happened:
13.1
in their words:
between twelve and fifteen points
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
2.6
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Florida
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
13.1
their party:
Republican
their range:
12,15
the naive guess said:
3.36
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“But with Minnesota, it's a very similar state in my analytics to Virginia. I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 71.3+28.7 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-mn
election year:
2024
skill:
28.7
topic:
elections
what happened:
4.24
in their words:
about three to five points
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
71.3
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Minnesota
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
4.24
their party:
Democratic
their range:
3,5
the naive guess said:
7.11
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“I ballpart both of those states at about three to five points just as a default setting”
Hit · 92Scored 92.4a naive guess scored 56.5+35.9 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-va
election year:
2024
skill:
35.9
topic:
elections
what happened:
5.76
in their words:
about three to five points
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
92.4
baseline:
56.5
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Virginia
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
5.76
their party:
Democratic
their range:
3,5
the naive guess said:
10.11
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“I don't think Trump is going to win New York... I have a feeling that that numb is down in the low double digits, if not potentially inside ten”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ny
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
low double digits, if not potentially inside ten
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in New York
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“what needs to be done for Harris to win Pennsylvania, which looks impossible to me... it looks like we probably have enough to get Pennsylvania”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-pa
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“because Michigan to me looks like a three to four point Trump state right now”
Hit · 84Scored 84.2a naive guess scored 58+26.2 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-mi
election year:
2024
skill:
26.2
topic:
elections
what happened:
1.42
in their words:
a three to four point Trump state
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
84.2
baseline:
58
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Michigan
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
1.42
their party:
Republican
their range:
3,4
the naive guess said:
-2.78
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 5, 2024
“And that pegged me for Georgia at a Trump margin of five point six percent.”
Close · 66Scored 65.9a naive guess scored 75.8-9.9 skill
How this was scored
race:
2024-president-ga
election year:
2024
skill:
-9.9
topic:
elections
what happened:
2.19
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin_points
whose number:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
65.9
baseline:
75.8
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Georgia
decided in the:
general
they said:
5.6
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the certified margin:
2.19
their party:
Republican
the naive guess said:
-0.23
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“So I think that Nevada is pretty much baked at this point. I don't think that she has a chance to get back in the fight.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nv
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“one hundred and twelve years of history suggests that Arizona is going to Trump too... there's the first time for everything, but I don't think it's this year”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-az
election year:
2024
skill:
100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Arizona
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“and two are Trump leaners less than ten North Carolina and Texas”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Trump leaners less than ten
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nm
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Democrat leaners
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in New Mexico
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-va
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Democrat leaners
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Virginia
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 5, 2024
“And then you got the four Democrat leaners, which I'm calling New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-nh
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
Democrat leaners
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Kamala Harris
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.