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Writes at The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
Across 5 graded calls in 5 articles, Ty Schmit scores 69.52% accuracy and a MissedTakes Score of -4.14, which means their calls were worse than a naive guess on the same claims.
That is a provisional record, fewer than ten graded articles, so the numbers are not yet meaningful and they are not ranked on the leaderboard.
How accurate are NFL experts overall? →
Every number here is computed from the published methodology, and every call below opens to its own arithmetic.
All 15 calls · one square per call
3hits60% of graded
1Close20%
1misses20%
10
How much better than a naive guess on the same claims. This is the ranking.
No kind has five graded calls yet, so none is rated.
5 graded calls in 5 articles, newest first. Every take from Ty Schmit, including the ones still waiting →
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
Chicago Bears to beat Seahawks
The same 87, by how often their calls landed, with no credit for difficulty.
Ty Schmit isn’t ranked yet: a record is ranked from 10 graded articles, so a lucky first handful can’t top the table.
“Yeah. I actually do fancy the Bears tonight quite a bit... So, I actually am going to take the bears in the points.”
Closing line (Nov 2): Seahawks by 3 · underdog pick, Bears 40%.
Green Bay Packers to beat Panthers
“Yeah. I mean, the Packers should win. They, you know, like, I think they are the better team.”
Closing line (Oct 29): Packers by 3.5 · favorite pick, Packers 63%.
Los Angeles Rams 38 — Bills 34
“I kinda like just a a thirty eight thirty four Rams victory. I think they've kinda been, you know, a little bit underwhelming so far, and do the Bills have enough?”
Closing line (Oct 12): Rams by 3.5, total 55.5 · this 38–34 calls a bigger Rams win (by 4) and more points (72).
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Bears
“No. Cover. I think the Eagles will win, but I think this one's gonna be very tight.”
Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5 · favorite pick, Eagles 64%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Green Bay Packers to beat Bears
“I do still think the packers are going to win. ... I think playing at Lambeau is a massive advantage.”
Closing line (Dec 7): Packers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Packers 72%.