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Ty SchmitSep 28, 2026

While taking the Bears to cover, they said they expect the Eagles to win Monday night in Chicago in a tight game.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original

0Miss · out of 100
Bears 27–7What happenedEagles at Bears
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
−189Skillafter difficulty

What Ty Schmit said

I think the Eagles will win, but I think this one's gonna be very tight.
Our reading: Philadelphia Eagles to beat Bears
Where it was said
The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
The episode
PMS 2.0 1633 - OVERREACTION MONDAY, NFL Week 3 Recap, MNF Preview/Picks, Ian Rapoport, Dan Orlovsky, Oregon Head Coach Dan Lanning, Darius Butler, & AJ Hawk
The original
Hear the original
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  1. SaidSep 28
  2. PlayedSep 28
  3. GradedSep 29

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia Eagles

    Philadelphia Eagles to beat Bears

    What happenedBears 27–7Eagles at Bears
    0Miss · naive 100
    0this call100a naive guess−100worse than naive1.89difficulty−189skill

    Closing line (Sep 28): Eagles by 3.5 · favorite pick, Eagles 64%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CHI
    score:
    7-27
    skill:
    −189
    they picked:
    PHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.89
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    16
    Think this is wrong?

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