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Ty SchmitDec 5, 2025

Ty said the spread felt high but still expected the Packers to beat the Bears at Lambeau.

Said on air, transcribed by us · The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)Hear the original

100Hit · out of 100

Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled

100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge

100This callout of 100

0Skillafter difficulty

What Ty Schmit said

I do still think the packers are going to win.

Our reading: Green Bay Packers to beat Bears

Where it was said: The Pat McAfee Show (podcast)
The episode: PMS 2.0 1465 - NFL Week 14 Preview/Picks, TNF Recap, Kirk Herbstreit, Chris Henry Jr. Makes His College Commitment, Nick Saban, Stanford Steve, & AJ Hawk
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidDec 5, 2025
GradedAug 17, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

Game Outcome Picks Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to beat Bears
VerdictHit
100Hit · naive 100
100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.28difficulty0skill
Closing line (Dec 7): Packers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Packers 72%.
How this was scored
won:
GB
score:
21-28
skill:
0
they picked:
GB
season:
2025
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
the naive pick:
GB
difficulty:
1.28
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
5
Think this is wrong?

Who this take is about

Green Bay Packers

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

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More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
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Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.

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