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Matthew Yglesias· Oct 2, 2026

Yglesias says that with Steve Hilton rather than moderate Democrat Matt Mahan making the California gubernatorial runoff, Xavier Becerra is certain to win the governorship.

“Now it's Hilton in a runoff with Becerra that Becerra is obviously going to win.”

published in writing · Slow Boring · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • Race WinnersOct 2, 2026

    “Now it's Hilton in a runoff with Becerra that Becerra is obviously going to win.”

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

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The same kind of call, about other players and teams.