John Ashbrook· Nov 8, 2022

Ashbrook predicted blowout Republican wins in Florida for Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis, a JD Vance victory in Ohio's Senate race with Mike DeWine winning the governorship by 15-plus points, and said Herschel Walker would finish slightly ahead of Raphael Warnock in Georgia.

“Marco Rubio is gonna stomp his opponent, and Ron DeSantis is gonna stomp his...”

said on air, transcribed by us · Ruthless Podcast · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 race margin — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 80 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“do not be surprised if tonight Walker finishes a little bit ahead of Warnock”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−100
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race MarginsNov 8, 2022
“the Republican who's running for governor, Mike DeWine, is gonna run or... is gonna win going away 15 points plus maybe”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+100 skill
How this was scored
race:
2022-governor-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
100
topic:
elections
what happened:
25
in their words:
going away 15 points plus maybe
read as:
as written
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Mike DeWine
zero credit this far off:
10
what they counted:
margin in points
whose number:
Mike DeWine
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Ohio gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
they won:
yes
the naive guess:
the seat's previous margin, or a tie when we do not hold it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the certified margin:
25
their party:
Republican
their range:
15 to 100
the naive guess said:
0
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“JD is gonna win here... And and JD is gonna win in Ohio.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“and Ron DeSantis is gonna stomp his... I think Florida Republicans this time around are gonna win much, much bigger”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“Marco Rubio is gonna stomp his opponent”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Marco Rubio
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Florida
decided in the:
general
they said:
Marco Rubio
days before the vote when called:
0
difficulty:
1
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.