Connor Rogers#32 of 87 NFL pundits · Sep 18, 2026
Rogers made their own Week 2 calls, taking the Packers, Eagles (by at least 10), Panthers (by at least a field goal), Cowboys (by at least six), Chargers, Chiefs and Rams to win. They also noted Baltimore was their Super Bowl pick and said it wouldn't shock them if Jacksonville hosted the AFC Championship Game.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)Hear the original
What Connor Rogers said
Would it shock me if Jacksonville ended up being at home in the AFC championship game? No.
- Where it was said
- Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)
- The episode
- Week 2 Picks; Josh Allen scorches Lions on TNF
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidSep 18
- PlayedSep 20–21
- GradedSep 30
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Outcome Picks | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seeding, Byes and Home Field | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Super Bowl Picks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| All | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
9 checkable claims — 7 game outcome picks, 1 seeding, byes and home field and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 9 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
7 of 9 have settled so far, averaging 85.7 out of 100, against 42.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Game Outcome Picks6 hits · 1 missShow ▸Hide ▾
Los Angeles Rams to beat Giants
“I'm gonna have the Rams win. I'm going to have the Giants cover.”
Rams 28–6Giants at Rams100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.94 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 21): Rams by 6.5 · favorite pick, Rams 72%. Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LAR
- score:
- 6-28
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- LAR
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Colts
“Man, this was a high confidence pick for me and the Chiefs.”
Chiefs 33–30Colts at Chiefs100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.94 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 20): Chiefs by 6 · favorite pick, Chiefs 70%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- KC
- score:
- 30-33
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- KC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- KC
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Los Angeles Chargers to beat Raiders
“I think the if I had to pick someone to win, I still think the Chargers win.”
Raiders 26–14Raiders at Chargers0Miss0 − 0 naive = 0 × 1.94 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 20): Chargers by 6.5 · favorite pick, Chargers about 3 in 4 (73%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- LV
- score:
- 26-14
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- LAC
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- LAC
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Dallas Cowboys to beat Commanders
“I'm going with Dallas to win and cover in this game... I think they win by at least six points in this game.”
Cowboys 37–20Commanders at Cowboys100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1.94 difficulty = 0 skill
Closing line (Sep 20): Cowboys by 3.5 · favorite pick, Cowboys about 2 in 3 (66%). Graded on who won, not on the spread.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- DAL
- score:
- 20-37
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- DAL
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Carolina Panthers to beat Falcons
“For me, I went with Carolina. I think they win this game by at least the field goal.”
Panthers 34–3Panthers at Falcons100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.94 difficulty = +194 skill
Closing line (Sep 20): Panthers by 2.5 · favorite pick, Panthers 58%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- CAR
- score:
- 34-3
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- ATL
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Titans
“I'm Eagles win by at least 10 massive confidence”
Eagles 24–20Eagles at Titans100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.94 difficulty = +194 skill
Closing line (Sep 20): Eagles by 7 · favorite pick, Eagles about 3 in 4 (73%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- PHI
- score:
- 24-20
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- TEN
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Green Bay Packers to beat Jets
“I don't think the Jets are gonna win this game. I know a lot of people are skewing that way.”
Packers 20–17Packers at Jets100Hit100 − 0 naive = 100 × 1.94 difficulty = +194 skill
Closing line (Sep 20): Packers by 3.5 · favorite pick, Packers 62%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- GB
- score:
- 20-17
- skill:
- 194
- they picked:
- GB
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- NYJ
- difficulty:
- 1.94
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 17
Seeding, Byes and Home Field1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Jacksonville Jaguars to take the top seed
“Would it shock me if Jacksonville ended up being at home in the AFC championship game? No.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Super Bowl Picks1 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl
“I mean, Baltimore was my Super Bowl team Mhmm. Pick.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
The games in this take
every pundit’s pick on each- Eagles at TitansEagles 24Titans 2037 calls →
- Panthers at FalconsPanthers 34Falcons 318 calls →
- Packers at JetsPackers 20Jets 1713 calls →
- Raiders at ChargersRaiders 26Chargers 1411 calls →
- Commanders at CowboysCowboys 37Commanders 2017 calls →
- Colts at ChiefsChiefs 33Colts 3018 calls →
- Giants at RamsRams 28Giants 633 calls →
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Chris Clark · Trade and Signing Calls · Nikko Remigio · Miss 0
Clark expects the Chiefs to bring back exclusive-rights receiver Nico (Remigio) and long snapper James Winchester, to re-sign JuJu Smith-Schuster as a cheap veteran fifth receiver, and not to bring back Hollywood Brown, Josh Dobbs-type depth, Gardner Minshew, Janarius Robinson or Mike Caliendo; they also say the Chiefs will not use a franchise tag and believes Bryan Cook won't return.Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.Jordan Dajani · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
After reporting that Colts receiver Josh Downs requested a trade, they identify five clubs as plausible landing spots for them: the Rams, Patriots, Falcons, Chiefs and Raiders, and suggests Las Vegas could also give them a long-term extension.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.