Galen Druke· Oct 17, 2024
He said Republicans were favored to take back the Senate and that West Virginia's Senate seat was a certain Republican pickup.
“Republicans are favored to win back the senate this cycle, and that's because they only need to flip, well, one or two seats to gain control.”
said on air, transcribed by us · FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 1 control of congres and 1 race winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Control of CongressOct 17, 2024
“Republicans are favored to win back the senate this cycle, and that's because they only need to flip, well, one or two seats to gain control.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- in their words:
- favored to win back the senate
- result from:
- senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
- chamber:
- 2024-senate
- who controls it:
- Republican
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- they said:
- Republican
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the naive guess:
- the party in control going in keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- who controlled it before:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring, is a lock for republicans”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-wv
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Independent
- in their words:
- a lock
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Jim Justice
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in West Virginia
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Jim Justice
- days before the vote when called:
- 18
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More control of congress
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Tom BevanControl of CongressHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Megyn KellyControl of CongressHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- David SacksControl of CongressMiss · 0Sacks forecast a good night for Republicans, saying they would win the House and also take the Senate, driven by the economy and inflation.
- Jim GeraghtyControl of CongressHit · 100Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Simon RosenbergControl of CongressHit · 100Rosenberg, quoted from a weekend post, argued the nonpartisan Senate polling showed no red wave and that Democrats remained favored to win the Senate.
- Doug SchoenControl of CongressHit · 100Schoen predicted a decisive Republican victory: the House with a 30-to-35-seat majority and the Senate with roughly 51 or 52 seats, while saying Kathy Hochul holds a clear advantage in New York and Ron DeSantis wins big in Florida.