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4 writers with a graded record here.
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93.37% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
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I would personally say that Fischer is is still a a pretty heavy favorite in this race.
if it ends up being fifty five forty five for Fisher, which is kind of my mental model for this race
Donald Trump is going to win Nebraska with, you know, 55, 60% of the vote.
the fact that our forecast is giving a very slight edge to Republicans in the house, but also maybe a very slight edge to Harris
The FiveThirtyEight house forecast, is basically giving Republicans a very slight edge at the moment.
the fact that Democrats can make up for that, by likely picking up a seat in Louisiana and one in Alabama
the fact that Democrats can make up for that, by likely picking up a seat in Louisiana and one in Alabama
Is this the year? ... Unlikely. ... it's getting over the hump if you're a Colin Allred and actually winning. That is the part here that I think is is difficult to see. That's that's gonna be really hard.
I do think you are gonna see adding one Democratic house seat in both Louisiana and Alabama ... Democrats score two basically automatic pickups in the house right then and there
I do think you are gonna see adding one Democratic house seat in both Louisiana and Alabama ... Democrats score two basically automatic pickups in the house right then and there
it will still, I think, be hard for Peltola to swim against the tide in a place where Trump is going to win as well
I think Tester being down on the polls is basically the reason why Democrats are fairly substantial underdogs in the senate.
Montana is significantly redder than Ohio is, and that looks like it's probably gonna be Tester's undoing this year ... I think it is just his luck has run out
Trump is obviously going to win Montana by a very healthy margin
Is this the year? Unlikely.
both of those races are lean Republican according to our forecast ... So if I had to choose, they would go Republican.
Republicans are favored to win back the senate this cycle, and that's because they only need to flip, well, one or two seats to gain control.
West Virginia, where Joe Manchin is retiring, is a lock for republicans
my my brain has sort of shifted this race over to lean d in the absence of pulling evidence.
Is this the moment that democrats turn Texas blue? ... I don't wanna say, no. It can't happen, but also, I don't think so.
That being said, I feel pretty confident predicting that Mark Robinson is not going to be the governor of North Carolina.
all three of those states went for Trump in 2016 and 2020, and all appear very likely to go his way again this year
all three of those states went for Trump in 2016 and 2020, and all appear very likely to go his way again this year
all three of those states went for Trump in 2016 and 2020, and all appear very likely to go his way again this year
Republicans are almost certain to win West Virginia where Democrat turned independent Joe Manchin recently retired. That would bring the Senate to fifty fifty.