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Bradley LockerOct 15, 2026

Locker expects the Chargers to lose at Kansas City and fall to 0-6, and anticipates that further losses could cost Mike McDaniel their play-calling job. They also believe Herbert can return to elite play once they clean up unforced errors.

Published in writing · Pro Football FocusRead the original

100Hit · out of 100
Chiefs 22–6What happenedChargers at Chiefs
100A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
100This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Bradley Locker said

Los Angeles stares down a plausible 0-6 start after facing the Chiefs in Kansas City as part of the league's toughest remaining schedule.
Our reading: Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers
Where it was published
Pro Football Focus
The piece
What’s wrong with Justin Herbert? Breaking down the Chargers quarterback’s 2026 struggles
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 15
  2. PlayedOct 18
  3. GradedOct 19

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Chargers

    What happenedChiefs 22–6Chargers at Chiefs
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.72difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 18): Chiefs by 7.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 4 in 5 (79%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    6-22
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1.72
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    13
    Think this is wrong?

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