Danny Parkins· Jan 2, 2026
Parkins lays the points with the Eagles and Cowboys, takes Baltimore to beat Pittsburgh and win the AFC North, picks Carolina over Tampa Bay and Seattle over San Francisco, and says he'd probably pick the Rams to come out of the NFC.
“Baltimore wins this game and the AFC North.”
said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast) · read the original →
7 checkable claims — 5 game outcome picks, 1 conference champion and 1 division winner — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 7 have settled, averaging 21.4 out of 100, against 42.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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Who this take is about
7 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Conference ChampionsLos Angeles RamsJan 2, 2026
Los Angeles Rams to reach the Super Bowl
“So are they your pick to win this NFC? I probably will pick the Rams.”
Close · 50Scored 50a naive guess scored 0+53 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 53
- they picked:
- LAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 50
- baseline:
- 0
- champions:
- NE,SEA
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the naive guess:
- last season's conference champions
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- reached the Super Bowl:
- no
- lost the conference final:
- yes
- Game Outcome PicksPhiladelphia EaglesJan 2, 2026
Philadelphia Eagles to beat Washington
“So I like the Eagles to win the game.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- WAS
- score:
- 24-17
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- PHI
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Division WinnersBaltimore RavensJan 2, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to win the division
“Baltimore wins this game and the AFC North. Easy.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- skill:
- 0
- method:
- division winners read off the bracket: the bye teams and the wild-card hosts
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- BAL
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- the naive guess:
- last season's winner of the same division
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- won the division:
- no
- Game Outcome PicksBaltimore RavensJan 2, 2026
Baltimore Ravens to beat Steelers
“So I have the Baltimore Ravens... Baltimore wins this game and the AFC North.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- PIT
- score:
- 24-26
- skill:
- -106
- they picked:
- BAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- PIT
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysJan 2, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to beat New York Giants
“you can count on the Dallas Cowboys beating the New York Giants... I'll happily lay only three and a half”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- NYG
- score:
- 17-34
- skill:
- -106
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- NYG
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksSeattle SeahawksJan 2, 2026
Seattle Seahawks to beat forty niners
“I got Seattle. Seattle to me, they are the more complete football team.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 13-3
- skill:
- 106
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- SF
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
- Game Outcome PicksCarolina PanthersJan 2, 2026
Carolina Panthers to beat Bucks
“I got the Panthers... I will take Carolina”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-106 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- TB
- score:
- 14-16
- skill:
- -106
- they picked:
- CAR
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- TB
- difficulty:
- 1.06
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 1
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Baltimore RavensHit · 98Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Los Angeles RamsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Baltimore RavensHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Seattle SeahawksMiss · 0Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Connor RogersGame Outcome Picks · New York GiantsHit · 100Rogers picked Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle and the Giants to win their Week 3 games, saying the Chiefs win by two touchdowns and the Giants by a field goal.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Detroit LionsHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.