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Iain MacMillanOct 9, 2026

Picks the Seahawks to beat the 49ers in Week 5.

Published in writing · Sports IllustratedRead the original

0Miss · out of 100
49ers 32–29What happened49ers at Seahawks
0A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
0This callout of 100
0Skillafter difficulty

What Iain MacMillan said

Our reading: Seattle Seahawks to beat 49ers

Where it was published
Sports Illustrated
The piece
Seahawks vs. 49ers Week 5 Expert Picks, Prediction Roundup
The original
Read the original
  1. SaidOct 9
  2. PlayedOct 11
  3. GradedOct 12

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 0 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

  1. Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks

    Seattle Seahawks to beat 49ers

    What happened49ers 32–2949ers at Seahawks
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.78difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Oct 11): Seahawks by 3 · favorite pick, Seahawks 60%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    SF
    score:
    32-29
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    SEA
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    SEA
    difficulty:
    1.78
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    14
    Think this is wrong?

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