Cynthia Frelund#45 of 87 NFL pundits · Jan 23, 2026
Frielan's model has the Broncos beating the Patriots straight up at home by about a point, and the Seahawks beating the Rams by two; they also affirm the Seahawks winning the Super Bowl.
Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original
What Cynthia Frelund said
our reading, beside the words we read it fromI have the Broncos winning it straight up, who by one point?
- Where it was said
- Move the Sticks (podcast)
- The episode
- Championship Weekend Picks with Cynthia Frelund + Ravens Hire Jesse Minter as Head Coach
- The original
- Hear the original
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The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.
- SaidJan 23
- GradedAug 5–17
- 1Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams“I'll take Seattle because I have a two point win. I'm going to stick with my math”
- 2Denver Broncos to beat Patriots“I have the Broncos winning it straight up, who by one point?”
- 3Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl“we're not The Seahawks got it to win the Super Bowl. / Yep, you already know. Well, I mean I just ran my model”
Box score
HitCloseMissWaiting| Verdict | Call | Kind | What happened | Score | Naive | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams1 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 100 | 100 | 0 | |
| Denver Broncos to beat Patriots2 | Game Outcome Picks | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl3 | Super Bowl Picks | SEA won it | 100 | 0 | +100 | |
| 3 calls · 2 hits · 1 miss · all settled | 66.7 | 33.3 | ||||
Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
How each call scored
a naive guessbetter than naive3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 super bowl pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 2 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 3 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
1Game Outcome PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to beat Rams
VerdictHit100Hit · naive 100100this call−100a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 25): Seahawks by 2.5 · favorite pick, Seahawks 56%.
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- SEA
- score:
- 27-31
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- the naive pick:
- SEA
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
2Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos
Denver Broncos to beat Patriots
VerdictMiss0Miss · naive 00this call−0a naive guess=0better than naive×1difficulty=0skillClosing line (Jan 25): Patriots by 3.5 · underdog pick, Broncos about 1 in 3 (36%).
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- won:
- NE
- score:
- 10-7
- skill:
- 0
- they picked:
- DEN
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- DEN
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
3Super Bowl PicksSeattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl
What happenedSEA won itpicked SEA100Hit · naive 0100this call−0a naive guess=100better than naive×1difficulty=+100skillThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- skill:
- 100
- they picked:
- SEA
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- champion:
- SEA
- runner up:
- NE
- the naive pick:
- PHI
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
66.7naive 33.3
Who this take is about
Others on the same people
Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman expects Sean Fresch Jr. to clear waivers and return to the Broncos' practice squad, sees Riley Moss back from concussion for the Week 11 game at Las Vegas, and projects newly acquired Daiyan Henley to begin as the third inside linebacker behind Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad before likely moving into a starting role.Zack Kelberman · Roster Spot Calls · Sean Fresch Jr. · Miss 0
Kelberman writes that Riley Moss may sit out the preseason finale against Minnesota but should be available for the Week 1 opener at Kansas City; they also suggest undrafted corners Sean Fresch Jr. and Brent Austin are being evaluated for practice squad spots.Chad Jensen · Roster Spot Calls · Jordan Turner · Miss 0
Jensen predicts Daiyan Henley's arrival will cut into Justin Strnad's snaps while Alex Singleton keeps playing virtually every down, and that Denver will return to a three-linebacker rotation after the Week 10 bye. They also expect one of Jordan Turner or Karene Reid — most likely Turner — to be waived to clear a roster spot.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Breer picks the Seahawks to beat the Cardinals in their Week 9 NFC West matchup.Tyler Sullivan · Game Outcome Picks · Seattle Seahawks · Hit 100
Sullivan picks the Seahawks to win in Week 9.
More game outcome picks
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.