Nathaniel Rakich· Oct 17, 2024

He predicted Democrats would gain new House seats in Louisiana and Alabama from redistricting, that Republicans would win the two competitive Arizona House seats and the Texas Senate race, that Tester would lose Montana as Trump carries it big, and that Democrats were substantial underdogs for Senate control.

“I think it is just his luck has run out because polarization is just so strong and Trump is obviously going to win Montana by a very healthy margin.”

said on air, transcribed by us · FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) · read the original →

8 checkable claims — 7 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

5 of 8 have settled so far, averaging 100 out of 100, against 60 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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8 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“it will still, I think, be hard for Peltola to swim against the tide in a place where Trump is going to win as well”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-ak
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Alaska
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressOct 17, 2024
“I think Tester being down on the polls is basically the reason why Democrats are fairly substantial underdogs in the senate.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
in their words:
Democrats are fairly substantial underdogs in the senate
result from:
senate: United States Senate, Party Division (https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm)
chamber:
2024-senate
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“Montana is significantly redder than Ohio is, and that looks like it's probably gonna be Tester's undoing this year ... I think it is just his luck has run out”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Tim Sheehy
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Tim Sheehy
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“Trump is obviously going to win Montana by a very healthy margin”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-president-mt
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election in Montana
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald Trump
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“Is this the year? Unlikely.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Unlikely
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“I do think you are gonna see adding one Democratic house seat in both Louisiana and Alabama ... Democrats score two basically automatic pickups in the house right then and there”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“I do think you are gonna see adding one Democratic house seat in both Louisiana and Alabama ... Democrats score two basically automatic pickups in the house right then and there”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“both of those races are lean Republican according to our forecast ... So if I had to choose, they would go Republican.”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.