Ben Shapiro· Oct 27, 2022

Shapiro predicted Republicans would sweep Nevada's governor and Senate races, that Ron Johnson would win easily in Wisconsin, that DeSantis was cruising in Florida, and offered Lee Zeldin beating Kathy Hochul in New York as his 'sleeper pick.'

“By the way, Nevada's gonna go Republican. It's gonna have Republican governor. It's gonna have Republican senator.”

said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 5 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 5 have settled, averaging 60 out of 100, against 80 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →

5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“So my sleeper pick is Zeldin over Hochul. I think that I think Zeldin Really? I think Zeldin's gonna win that race.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-governor-ny
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Kathy Hochul
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 New York gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Lee Zeldin
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“He's currently up in the polls, 11 points in the average... I mean, so so Ronda Senses is running away with that.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-fl
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Ron DeSantis
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Florida gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron DeSantis
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“Ron Johnson, he was expected to lose that seat. He's gonna win that seat walking away in in Wisconsin.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-wi
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ron Johnson
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ron Johnson
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“By the way, Nevada's gonna go Republican. It's gonna have Republican governor.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+102 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Joe Lombardo
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 Nevada gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Joe Lombardo
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“It's gonna have Republican senator.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−102
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
12
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.