Connor Rogers#32 of 87 NFL pundits · Oct 2, 2026

Rogers picked Green Bay and Kansas City to win outright while liking the underdogs to stay close, and called for Minnesota to beat Miami 21-6.

Said on air, transcribed by us · Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)Hear the original

2 of 3calls landed2 hits · 1 close call · all settled

92.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 3 calls

30.2A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

3Games calledeveryone’s picks below

#32Connor Rogers’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Connor Rogers said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

I think Green Bay does win the game, but I think the Bucks hang around by a field goal.

Connor Rogers, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was said: Chris Simms Unbuttoned (podcast)
The episode: NFL Week 4 Picks; Browns down Steelers
The original: Hear the original
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

SaidOct 2
PlayedOct 4
GradedOct 5

1Green Bay Packers to beat Bucks“I think Green Bay does win the game, but I think the Bucks hang around by a field goal.”
2Minnesota Vikings 21 — Miami 6“I'm going with the Vikings... The Vikings win 21 to six.”
3Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders“I do think the Chiefs win, but I think the Raiders are playing really damn good football.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Green Bay Packers to beat Bucks¹	Game Outcome Picks	Packers 17–14	100	0	+183
Minnesota Vikings 21 — Miami 6²	Score Predictions	Vikings 15–10	76.19	90.48	−26.14
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders³	Game Outcome Picks	Chiefs 30–27	100	0	+183
3 calls · 2 hits · 1 close call · all settled			92.1	30.2

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

3 checkable claims — 2 game outcome picks and 1 score prediction — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 3 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 3 have settled, averaging 92.1 out of 100, against 30.2 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

1Game Outcome Picks Green Bay Packers
Green Bay Packers to beat Bucks
What happenedPackers 17–14Packers at Buccaneers
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Packers by 3 · favorite pick, Packers 58%.
How this was scored
won:
GB
score:
17-14
skill:
183
they picked:
GB
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
TB
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
2Score Predictions Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings 21 — Miami 6
What happenedVikings 15–10called Vikings by 15 · won by 5
76.19Close · naive 90.48
76.19this call90.48a naive guess−14.29worse than naive1.83difficulty−26.14skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Vikings by 10, total 38.5 · this 21–6 calls a bigger Vikings win (by 15) and fewer points (27).
How this was scored
score:
10-15
skill:
−26.14
they picked:
MIN
season:
2026
accuracy:
76.19
baseline:
90.48
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
actual margin:
5
weeks left when called:
15
naive home margin:
1
predicted margin:
15
Think this is wrong?
3Game Outcome Picks Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Raiders
What happenedChiefs 30–27Chiefs at Raiders
100Hit · naive 0
100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.83difficulty+183skill
Closing line (Oct 4): Chiefs by 4.5 · favorite pick, Chiefs about 2 in 3 (66%).
How this was scored
won:
KC
score:
30-27
skill:
183
they picked:
KC
season:
2026
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
the naive pick:
LV
difficulty:
1.83
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
15
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 3 settled calls, each counted once
92.1naive 30.2

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

Who this take is about

Make your own calls.Pick every open claim on Picks →

Others on the same people

Jason Harmon · Roster Spot Calls · Max Brosmer · Miss 0
Harmon expects the Vikings' quarterback room to stay intact while Kyler Murray is hurt, and predicts Max Brosmer will be released and re-signed to the practice squad since Minnesota won't carry four QBs.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.
Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Lazarczyk expects the Raiders to be sellers before the trade deadline, suggesting Kirk Cousins could be dealt back to the Vikings and that benched interior lineman Jackson Powers-Johnson is a prime candidate to be traded somewhere.
Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.
Gilberto Manzano · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Previewing the trade deadline, he expects Justin Herbert to stay in Los Angeles despite the Chargers' 0–7 start, thinks the Jets will keep Garrett Wilson and pair him with their young weapons, expects a receiver-hungry Kansas City to be aggressive with Josh Downs the likeliest target, and suggests expiring Eagles contracts Moro Ojomo and Riq Woolen could be dealt for mid-round picks.
Joshua Poniatowski · Trade and Signing Calls · Josh Downs · Hit 100
Poniatowski names several trade targets, predicting Malik Willis underperforms this week against New England, that Omarion Hampton could become a viable RB2 if Adam Gase takes over play-calling, that Josh Downs gets traded (ideally to Kansas City, where they'd be a top-24 WR), that Brian Thomas Jr. could be dealt to the Rams or 49ers, and that Travis Kelce remains a consistent weekly TE.

More game outcome picks

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.

Sam Monson · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Monson picked every Week 10 game, taking the Giants, Lions, Packers, Panthers, Colts, Texans, Bills, Chiefs, Jaguars, Seahawks, Rams, Cowboys, Bengals and Ravens, and also suggested the Chargers' only likely wins the rest of the way come against the Jets and Dolphins.
Eva Geitheim · Game Outcome Picks · Washington Commanders · Hit 100
Geitheim picked the Commanders, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Vikings, Jaguars, Colts, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Conor Orr · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Orr picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Chargers in Week 10.
Albert Breer · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Breer picked all 14 Week 10 games straight up, favoring the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.
Mitch Goldich · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Goldich picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Panthers, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.
Matt Verderame · Game Outcome Picks · New York Giants · Miss 0
Verderame picked the Giants, Lions, Chiefs, Texans, Packers, Jaguars, Dolphins, Saints, Bills, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers, Bengals and Ravens in Week 10.