Ben Shapiro· Oct 28, 2022
Shapiro forecast a strong Republican midterm in the key Senate races, calling wins for Ted Budd in North Carolina, Adam Laxalt in Nevada, Herschel Walker in Georgia, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Marco Rubio in Florida and Mehmet Oz over John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, plus Brian Kemp over Stacey Abrams for Georgia governor. He also named Kathy Hochul's defeat in New York as his sleeper pick of the cycle.
“Herschel Walker looks like he's gonna win that race walking away.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →
9 checkable claims — 9 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 9 have settled, averaging 55.6 out of 100, against 88.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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9 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“But in in North Carolina is up big. He's gonna win that race. ... And meanwhile, Budd is just running away with the race.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-senate-nc
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Ted Budd
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ted Budd
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“Laxalt, as I said, Nevada is up. I think he will win that race.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-senate-nv
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Catherine Cortez Masto
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Adam Paul Laxalt
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, who was once expected to lose that race, is gonna win that race.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-senate-wi
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Ron Johnson
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ron Johnson
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“Marco Rubio is blowing out Val Demings in Florida... the reason that they are not spending money in these races is because those candidates are going to lose.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-senate-fl
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Marco Rubio
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Florida
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Marco Rubio
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“Instead, Instead, it looks like they're gonna lose to Mehmet Oz.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-senate-pa
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- John K. Fetterman
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Mehmet Oz
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“I've said that my sleeper pick in this particular midterm election is that Kathy Hochul goes down in New York”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-governor-ny
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Kathy Hochul
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 New York gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Lee Zeldin
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“Herschel Walker looks like he's gonna win that race walking away.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-senate-ga
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −101
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Raphael Warnock
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
- decided in the:
- runoff
- they said:
- Herschel Junior Walker
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“In Ohio, JD Vance is going to poke away with that race.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-senate-oh
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- JD Vance
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- JD Vance
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 28, 2022
“Brian Kemp is running away with his race against Stacey Abrams... he is dragging Herschel Walker along with him to victory.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2022-governor-ga
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Brian Kemp
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Brian Kemp
- days before the vote when called:
- 10
- difficulty:
- 1.01
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.