Robby Soave· Nov 1, 2022

Revising an earlier forecast of another 50-50 Senate, he predicted Adam Laxalt would flip Nevada for Republicans and abandoned his earlier call that Fetterman would narrowly win Pennsylvania, expecting the GOP to take that seat too. He also said Brian Kemp was the clear favorite and would beat Stacey Abrams in Georgia's governor's race.

“I think Nevada will flip, Laxalt will win, so that's gonna go Republican.”

said on air, transcribed by us · Rising (The Hill) · read the original →

3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 3 have settled, averaging 33.3 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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3 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“So Brian Kemp is obviously pulling ahead of Stacey Abrams, is definitely the favorite to win this race. I absolutely expect him to do so.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-governor-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
wikipedia-2022-governor
who won:
Brian Kemp
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 Georgia gubernatorial election
decided in the:
general
they said:
Brian Kemp
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“Pennsylvania, up until last week, I was saying I think Fetterman would eke it out. I have changed that prediction. ... if the Republicans have already take... Taken the Senate because they won Nevada and Pennsylvania”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 1, 2022
“I think Nevada will flip, Laxalt will win, so that's gonna go Republican.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
6
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.