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Greg JenningsSep 18, 2026

Jennings put the Cardinals up as their upset alert over Seattle, backed the Texans over Cincinnati and the Bears over Minnesota with chips, put two chips on Denver beating Jacksonville, and wrote a headline of the Packers beating the Jets; they also called the Bengals a playoff team and the Chiefs winners over Indianapolis.

Said on air, transcribed by us · First Things First (podcast)Hear the original

3 of 6calls landed3 hits · 3 misses · 1 waiting
50Average accuracyout of 100, across 6 calls
33.3A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge
6Games calledeveryone’s picks below
1Waitingnot graded yet

What Greg Jennings said

our reading, beside the words we read it from
I got a nice little headline. Alright. And it's gonna read Jets grounded. Jordan Love and the Packers fly past New York.
Greg Jennings, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below
Where it was said
First Things First (podcast)
The episode
Bills beat Lions, Week 2 Upset Alert and Nick’s Picks, Will Mahomes have a ‘monster game’?
The original
Hear the original
Read it wrong?
Tell us and we will look
  1. SaidSep 18
  2. PlayedSep 20
  3. GradedSep 21
  1. 1Houston Texans to beat Bengals“I got four chips on I like the Bengals, but I'm going with the Texans.”
  2. 2Chicago Bears to beat Vikings“I'm a put two chips. I'm not gonna get too excited and put more than two chips on the Bears, but I got two chips on the Bears.”
  3. 3Denver Broncos to beat Jacksonville Jaguars“So I'm gonna take two chips and I'm gonna put it on the Denver Broncos... but I believe in the Broncos.”
  4. 4Arizona Cardinals to beat Seahawks“I'm going over to Arizona. I I believe in this team... I don't think the cardinals are gonna allow too much more.”
  5. 5Kansas City Chiefs to beat Colts“I agree with you guys because I think they can ride Kenneth Walker to victory against the Colts.”
  6. 6Green Bay Packers to beat Jets“Jets grounded. Jordan Love and the Packers fly past New York.”
  7. 7Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs“They're a team that I feel like is gonna make the postseason.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting
VerdictCallKindWhat happenedScoreNaiveSkill
Houston Texans to beat Bengals1Game Outcome PicksBengals 20–6000
Chicago Bears to beat Vikings2Game Outcome PicksVikings 9–3000
Denver Broncos to beat Jacksonville Jaguars3Game Outcome PicksBroncos 20–131001000
Arizona Cardinals to beat Seahawks4Game Outcome PicksSeahawks 31–7000
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Colts5Game Outcome PicksChiefs 33–301001000
Green Bay Packers to beat Jets6Game Outcome PicksPackers 20–171000+194
Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs7Playoff Picks————
7 calls · 3 hits · 3 misses · 1 waiting5033.3

Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

7 checkable claims — 6 game outcome picks and 1 playoff pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 7 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

6 of 7 have settled so far, averaging 50 out of 100, against 33.3 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. 1Game Outcome PicksHouston Texans

    Houston Texans to beat Bengals

    What happenedBengals 20–6Bengals at Texans
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Texans by 3 · favorite pick, Texans 57%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    CIN
    score:
    20-6
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    HOU
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    HOU
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  2. 2Game Outcome PicksChicago Bears

    Chicago Bears to beat Vikings

    What happenedVikings 9–3Vikings at Bears
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Bears by 4.5 · favorite pick, Bears about 2 in 3 (66%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    MIN
    score:
    9-3
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    CHI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    CHI
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  3. 3Game Outcome PicksDenver Broncos

    Denver Broncos to beat Jacksonville Jaguars

    What happenedBroncos 20–13Jaguars at Broncos
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Broncos by 2.5 · favorite pick, Broncos 57%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    DEN
    score:
    13-20
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    DEN
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    DEN
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  4. 4Game Outcome PicksArizona Cardinals

    Arizona Cardinals to beat Seahawks

    What happenedSeahawks 31–7Seahawks at Cardinals
    0Miss · naive 0
    0this call0a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Seahawks by 3.5 · underdog pick, Cardinals about 1 in 3 (34%).

    How this was scored
    won:
    SEA
    score:
    31-7
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    ARI
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    0
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    ARI
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  5. 5Game Outcome PicksKansas City Chiefs

    Kansas City Chiefs to beat Colts

    What happenedChiefs 33–30Colts at Chiefs
    100Hit · naive 100
    100this call100a naive guess0better than naive1.94difficulty0skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Chiefs by 6 · favorite pick, Chiefs 70%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    KC
    score:
    30-33
    skill:
    0
    they picked:
    KC
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    100
    the naive pick:
    KC
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  6. 6Game Outcome PicksGreen Bay Packers

    Green Bay Packers to beat Jets

    What happenedPackers 20–17Packers at Jets
    100Hit · naive 0
    100this call0a naive guess100better than naive1.94difficulty+194skill

    Closing line (Sep 20): Packers by 3.5 · favorite pick, Packers 62%.

    How this was scored
    won:
    GB
    score:
    20-17
    skill:
    194
    they picked:
    GB
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    100
    baseline:
    0
    the naive pick:
    NYJ
    difficulty:
    1.94
    weeks in the season:
    18
    weeks left when called:
    17
    Think this is wrong?

  7. 7Playoff PicksCincinnati Bengals

    Cincinnati Bengals to make the playoffs

    VerdictWaiting

    Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.

    Think this is wrong?
  8. All

    The take as a whole

    the average of 6 settled calls, each counted once

    50naive 33.3

The games in this take

every pundit’s pick on each

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