Marcus Mosher· May 16, 2024
Mosher names four running backs as 2024 breakout candidates: Zamir White as the Raiders' lead back, Chase Brown in an expanded Bengals role, Brian Robinson Jr. posting huge numbers in Washington's new offense, and Rico Dowdle leading the Cowboys in touches with a 1,000-yard season.
“If Dowdle stays healthy, he should post 1,000 yards and be a key cog for one of the NFC's best teams.”
published in writing · The 33rd Team · read the original (as archived May 19, 2024) →
The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy above is the record of what it said.
4 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
All 4 have settled, averaging 90.1 out of 100, against 68.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Their call against what happened
rushing yards1,000They said
1,079What happened
Their call against what actually happened.
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Who this take is about
4 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Player Season NumbersRico DowdleDallas CowboysMay 16, 2024
Rico Dowdle to record 1,000 rushing yards
“If Dowdle stays healthy, he should post 1,000 yards and be a key cog for one of the NFC's best teams.”
Hit · 85Scored 85.36a naive guess scored 0+170.71 skillHow this was scored
- naive:
- 375.82
- skill:
- 170.71
- what happened:
- 1079
- player:
- Rico Dowdle
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 85.36
- baseline:
- 0
- predicted:
- 1000
- statistic:
- rushing_yards
- difficulty:
- 2
- last season:
- 361
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- position average:
- 390.64
- zero at percent out:
- 50
- Depth Chart CallsZack MossCincinnati BengalsMay 16, 2024
Zack Moss to be 1st on the depth chart
“that's why Cincinnati signed Zack Moss to do the heavy lifting on early downs”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- CIN
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Zack Moss
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsRico DowdleDallas CowboysMay 16, 2024
Rico Dowdle to be 1st on the depth chart
“But Dowdle will handle a lot of the heavy lifting on early downs.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- DAL
- skill:
- 16.67
- player:
- Rico Dowdle
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
- Depth Chart CallsZamir WhiteLas Vegas RaidersMay 16, 2024
Zamir White to be 1st on the depth chart
“Las Vegas only added Alexander Mattison to the backfield this offseason, so it will rely on White as the rushing attack's focal point.”
Hit · 83Scored 83.33a naive guess scored 91.67-16.67 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- LV
- skill:
- -16.67
- player:
- Zamir White
- season:
- 2024
- accuracy:
- 83.33
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 3
- difficulty:
- 2
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 18
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 40Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Chris LongGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsMiss · 0Long liked the Rams over the Broncos on Sunday night even without Puka Nacua, and expected the Bills to beat the winless Chargers in Buffalo. He also backed the Bengals over the Steelers, expected an angry Detroit team to handle the Jets, and still thought both the Lions and Vikings could win the NFC North.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Matt HarmonGame Outcome Picks · Cincinnati BengalsHit · 100Harmon picked the Bengals to beat the Texans in Week 2, expecting Nico Collins to miss the game with a hamstring injury, and also predicted the Titans would be shut out by the Eagles. He took the Rams over the Giants, the Bears over the Vikings, and the Jaguars at Denver.
- Nate TiceScore Predictions · Cincinnati BengalsClose · 74Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Fox SportsDepth Chart Calls · Michael Penix Jr.Hit · 100Fox Sports states that a healthy Tua Tagovailoa will serve as Atlanta's backup quarterback in Week 3, with Michael Penix Jr. handling the starting duties against Green Bay.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Aaron JonesHit · 100In previewing the 10 most intriguing fantasy performers of Week 2, Fitzmaurice expects Atlanta's quarterback problems to persist with Tua Tagovailoa unlikely to play and Michael Penix Jr. not ready to return, flags Falcons slot corner Billy Bowman Jr. as a possible Week 2 returnee, and describes Aaron Jones as Minnesota's lead back and Kaelon Black as the clear backup to Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco.
- Matt SeveranceDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100The CBS Sports preview backs Tampa Bay to beat Cleveland in the Bucs' Week 2 home opener, and states that Deshaun Watson — not Shedeur Sanders — will be Cleveland's starting quarterback in Week 2.
- Rafael ZamoranoDepth Chart Calls · Deshaun WatsonHit · 100Zamorano reports Watson will start Week 2 at Tampa Bay and suggests there's little reason to expect improvement, raising the possibility Watson's five-year contract never yields more than single-digit wins.
- Rich HribarDepth Chart Calls · Tua TagovailoaMiss · 0Hribar expects Tua Tagovailoa to be Atlanta's starting quarterback for Week 2 while Michael Penix stays out, with Penix's return closer to Week 4. He is unenthusiastic about the Falcons' offense either way and treats Bryce Young as a fringe fantasy starter.