Marcus Mosher#41 of 87 NFL pundits · May 16, 2024

Mosher names four running backs as 2024 breakout candidates: Zamir White as the Raiders' lead back, Chase Brown in an expanded Bengals role, Brian Robinson Jr. posting huge numbers in Washington's new offense, and Rico Dowdle leading the Cowboys in touches with a 1,000-yard season.

Published in writing · The 33rd TeamRead the original

4 of 4calls landed4 hits · all settled

90.1Average accuracyout of 100, across 4 calls

68.8A naive guessthe same calls, no knowledge

4 of 4Settlednone still waiting

#41Marcus Mosher’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Marcus Mosher said

our reading, beside the words we read it from

If Dowdle stays healthy, he should post 1,000 yards and be a key cog for one of the NFC's best teams.

Marcus Mosher, the lead quote · each call’s own words are below

Where it was published: The 33rd Team
The piece: 2024 NFL Predictions: Who Will Be This Year’s Breakout Running Backs?
The original: The copy as archived May 19, 2024
Read it wrong?: Tell us and we will look

The page this came from has since been taken down. The archived copy is the record of what it said.

SaidMay 16, 2024
GradedAug 5, 2026

1Rico Dowdle to record 1,000 rushing yards“If Dowdle stays healthy, he should post 1,000 yards and be a key cog for one of the NFC's best teams.”
2Zack Moss to be 1st on the depth chart“that's why Cincinnati signed Zack Moss to do the heavy lifting on early downs”
3Rico Dowdle to be 1st on the depth chart“But Dowdle will handle a lot of the heavy lifting on early downs.”
4Zamir White to be 1st on the depth chart“Las Vegas only added Alexander Mattison to the backfield this offseason, so it will rely on White as the rushing attack's focal point.”

Box score

HitCloseMissWaiting

Call	Kind	What happened	Score	Naive	Skill
Rico Dowdle to record 1,000 rushing yards¹	Player Season Numbers	1,079	85.36	0	+170.71
Zack Moss to be 1st on the depth chart²	Depth Chart Calls	No. 2	91.67	91.67	0
Rico Dowdle to be 1st on the depth chart³	Depth Chart Calls	No. 1	100	91.67	+16.67
Zamir White to be 1st on the depth chart⁴	Depth Chart Calls	No. 3	83.33	91.67	−16.67
4 calls · 4 hits · all settled			90.1	68.8

How each call scored

a naive guessbetter than naiveworse than naive

4 checkable claims — 3 depth chart calls and 1 player season number — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.

All 4 have settled, averaging 90.1 out of 100, against 68.8 for a naive guess at the same calls.

Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

Their call against what happened

rushing yards

1,000They said

1,079What happened

Their call against what actually happened.

1Player Season Numbers Rico Dowdle Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle to record 1,000 rushing yards
What happened1,079called 1,000
85.36Hit · naive 0
85.36this call0a naive guess85.36better than naive2difficulty+170.71skill
How this was scored
naive:
375.82
skill:
170.71
what happened:
1079
player:
Rico Dowdle
season:
2024
accuracy:
85.36
baseline:
0
they said:
1000
statistic:
rushing_yards
difficulty:
2
last season:
361
weeks in the season:
18
weeks left when called:
18
position average:
390.64
zero at percent out:
50
Think this is wrong?
2Depth Chart Calls Zack Moss Cincinnati Bengals
Zack Moss to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 2called No. 1 · by rushing yards
91.67Hit · naive 91.67
91.67this call91.67a naive guess0better than naive2difficulty0skill
How this was scored
club:
CIN
skill:
0
player:
Zack Moss
season:
2024
accuracy:
91.67
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
naive slot:
1
actual slot:
2
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
3Depth Chart Calls Rico Dowdle Dallas Cowboys
Rico Dowdle to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards
100Hit · naive 91.67
100this call91.67a naive guess8.33better than naive2difficulty+16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
DAL
skill:
16.67
player:
Rico Dowdle
season:
2024
accuracy:
100
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
1
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
4Depth Chart Calls Zamir White Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White to be 1st on the depth chart
What happenedNo. 3called No. 1 · by rushing yards
83.33Hit · naive 91.67
83.33this call91.67a naive guess−8.34worse than naive2difficulty−16.67skill
How this was scored
club:
LV
skill:
−16.67
player:
Zamir White
season:
2024
accuracy:
83.33
baseline:
91.67
position:
RB
naive slot:
2
actual slot:
3
difficulty:
2
measured by:
rushing yards
the naive guess:
where he sat last season
weeks in the season:
18
predicted slot:
1
weeks left when called:
18
Think this is wrong?
All
The take as a whole
the average of 4 settled calls, each counted once
90.1naive 68.8

Who this take is about

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