Newt Gingrich· Nov 2, 2022

One week before the midterms, Gingrich ran through the Senate map, saying Hassan would probably lose in New Hampshire, Oz would likely win Pennsylvania, Budd would hold North Carolina, Vance would win Ohio, Laxalt would beat Cortez Masto in Nevada, and Republicans would not be competitive in Colorado. He also spoke of a coming "new Republican Congress."

“I fully expect him to win partially because the Latino vote almost everywhere in the country is drifting away from the Democrats”

said on air or in an interview · Newt's World · read the original →

7 checkable claims — 6 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 7 have settled, averaging 57.1 out of 100, against 71.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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7 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“In New Hampshire, where Maggie Hassan... Don Bulldock is now getting very close to matching her, and I think when the full impact of the rise in heating oil prices hits in New Hampshire that she's probably going to lose... it's very likely going to come our way.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nh
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Maggie Hassan
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire
decided in the:
general
they said:
Donald C. Bolduc
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“he's not breaking through. In the last couple of polls show Senator Bennett winning handily, and my guesses we will not in the end be competitive in Colorado.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-co
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Michael Bennet
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Colorado
decided in the:
general
they said:
Michael Bennet
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“Federman dropped behind Memodaz, and I think now it's very likely that Memodaz is going to win Pennsylvania.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-pa
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
John K. Fetterman
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
decided in the:
general
they said:
Mehmet Oz
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“Ted Bud now is up by a substantial margin, and I'm pretty confident that Bud is in fact going to keep that seat on the Republican side.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-nc
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Ted Budd
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Budd
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“Adam Laxalt, the former Attorney General of Nevada... he is generally now pulling ahead of her, and I fully expect him to win”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressNov 2, 2022
“Well, I think with the new Republican Congress they will.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+101 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2022
skill:
101
topic:
elections
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2022-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
0
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
who controlled it before:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 2, 2022
“In Ohio, jd. Vance is ahead of Democrat Tim Ryan... So I'm pretty confident that Advance is going to end up winning.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2022-senate-oh
election year:
2022
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
JD Vance
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Ohio
decided in the:
general
they said:
JD Vance
days before the vote when called:
5
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.