Chuck Todd· Oct 22, 2026
Reading a new Times/Siena poll showing Democrats up 11 on the generic ballot, Todd forecasts a Democratic wave: Democrats winning both chambers, picking up 25-35 House seats, and taking Senate races in Ohio, Texas, Maine and North Carolina while falling short in Kansas, Mississippi and South Carolina. He also caps Democratic Senate gains at 52 seats, says Cynthia Lummis wins Wyoming's Senate seat, Republicans hold Wyoming's at-large House seat, Maura Healey wins reelection in Massachusetts, and Vivek Ramaswamy loses badly in Ohio.
“the Democrats are going to win the House and the Senate”
said on air or in an interview · The Chuck ToddCast · read the original →
15 checkable claims — 10 race winners, 3 seat counts and 2 control of congress — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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15 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Seat CountsOct 22, 2026
“And I have to say, I'll just be honest, I think it's way too bullish. I think 52 is the ceiling.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 22, 2026
“the Democrats are going to win the House and the Senate. It's not just going to be a mirage. If this is the electorate, they're going to win both pure and simple.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“what it probably means is that Democrats come up short in Kansas, short in Mississippi, Short in South Carolina”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“but at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“but at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Control of CongressOct 22, 2026
“But at this point, if this is the electorate that we're staring at, the time CNN has done, the Democrats are going to win the House and the Senate.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“what it probably means is that Democrats come up short in Kansas, short in Mississippi, Short in South Carolina”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“Now, are Democrats going to win the Wyoming at-large seat? No, they're not going to win the...”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“but at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 22, 2026
“They're going to be at somewhere 235 total House seats to 245 if we're looking at a D plus 11.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“what it probably means is that Democrats come up short in Kansas, short in Mississippi, Short in South Carolina”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsOct 22, 2026
“If you're at D plus 11, Democrats are picking up 25 to 35 House seats.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“but at a 11-point swing, that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“if you stick with that campaign, you put that on your resume, you're not getting hired by any mainstream Republican if he loses as badly as I think he's going to lose on this”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersOct 22, 2026
“But me thinks Maura Healey and her lieutenant governor are going to are going to end up victorious here.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.