Geoffrey Skelley· Oct 17, 2024

Relaying 538's forecast, he said Republicans had a very slight edge for House control and Harris a very slight edge in the presidential race. He also expected Republicans to hold the Texas Senate seat despite Allred possibly running ahead of Harris, and said redistricting would likely hand Democrats new seats in Louisiana and Alabama.

“The FiveThirtyEight house forecast, is basically giving Republicans a very slight edge at the moment.”

said on air, transcribed by us · FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) · read the original →

5 checkable claims — 4 race winners and 1 control of congres — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

3 of 5 have settled so far, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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5 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“the fact that our forecast is giving a very slight edge to Republicans in the house, but also maybe a very slight edge to Harris”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2024-president
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
in their words:
a very slight edge
result from:
fec-2024-president
who won:
Donald Trump
accuracy:
0
baseline:
0
race name:
2024 U.S. presidential election
decided in the:
electoral-college
they said:
Kamala Harris
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Democratic
Think this is wrong?
Control of CongressOct 17, 2024
“The FiveThirtyEight house forecast, is basically giving Republicans a very slight edge at the moment.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
in their words:
a very slight edge
result from:
house: Office of the Historian, U.S. House of Representatives, Party Divisions of the House of Representatives (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Party-Divisions/Party-Divisions/)
chamber:
2024-house
who controls it:
Republican
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
they said:
Republican
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the naive guess:
the party in control going in keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
who controlled it before:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“Is this the year? ... Unlikely. ... it's getting over the hump if you're a Colin Allred and actually winning. That is the part here that I think is is difficult to see. That's that's gonna be really hard.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skill
How this was scored
right:
yes
race:
2024-senate-tx
election year:
2024
skill:
0
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Republican
in their words:
Unlikely
result from:
wikipedia-2024-senate
who won:
Ted Cruz
accuracy:
100
baseline:
100
race name:
2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
decided in the:
general
they said:
Ted Cruz
days before the vote when called:
18
difficulty:
1.02
the winner's party:
Republican
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2024-11-05
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“the fact that Democrats can make up for that, by likely picking up a seat in Louisiana and one in Alabama”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersOct 17, 2024
“the fact that Democrats can make up for that, by likely picking up a seat in Louisiana and one in Alabama”
Too vague to check — we could not tell what would count as right.
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.