Ben Shapiro· Oct 27, 2022
Shapiro argues Democrats are headed for a bad midterm, naming Lee Zeldin as his 'sleeper pick' to win the New York governorship over a vulnerable Kathy Hochul, and saying abortion politics won't be enough to save John Fetterman in Pennsylvania's Senate race after his debate performance.
“I already told you my sleeper pick is Lee Zeldin for governor in in in New York.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The Ben Shapiro Show · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“I already told you my sleeper pick is Lee Zeldin for governor in in in New York. I think that New York Democrats have no reason to show up for the polls for for Kathy Hochul. I think she's in serious trouble in that race”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-102 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-governor-ny
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −102
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Kathy Hochul
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 New York gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Lee Zeldin
- days before the vote when called:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersOct 27, 2022
“Abortion is not going to drive enough people to the polls in Pennsylvania to overcome the fact that you guys ran somebody who is not capable of holding the office.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-senate-pa
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- John K. Fetterman
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Mehmet Oz
- days before the vote when called:
- 11
- difficulty:
- 1.02
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.