David Pakman· Jul 12, 2024
Discussing why national polling shifts mislead, Pakman asserted that Biden will still carry California and Trump will still carry Texas in the presidential race. He also predicted Marjorie Taylor Greene will likely win reelection to her House seat this November.
“Biden's still going to win California, although maybe by a little bit less than he otherwise would.”
said on air, transcribed by us · The David Pakman Show · read the original →
3 checkable claims — 3 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 3 have settled, averaging 66.7 out of 100, against 66.7 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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3 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersJul 12, 2024
“Because if some of that shift is in California, Biden's still going to win California, although maybe by a little bit less than he otherwise would.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2024-president
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election
- decided in the:
- electoral-college
- they said:
- Joe Biden
- days before the vote when called:
- 115
- difficulty:
- 1.16
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
- Race WinnersJul 12, 2024
“She'll probably get reelected in November, but maybe we can give her the boot in 2026.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ga-14
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Marjorie Taylor Greene
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in Georgia's district 14
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Marjorie Taylor Greene
- days before the vote when called:
- 115
- difficulty:
- 1.16
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersJul 12, 2024
“Or Texas is still going to be won by Trump, maybe just by two more points than it normally would.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-president-tx
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- fec-2024-president
- who won:
- Donald Trump
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. presidential election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Donald Trump
- days before the vote when called:
- 115
- difficulty:
- 1.16
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.