Pat GustavsonFeb 24, 2026
Gustafson predicted AJ Brown leaves Philadelphia (favoring the Raiders as a fit), assigned free agents to landing spots (Kenneth Walker to Jacksonville, Rashid Shaheed to the Raiders, Juwan Jennings to the Chargers, Isaiah Likely to the Titans, Christian Kirk to the Dolphins), and named their Week 1 quarterbacks including Deshaun Watson for Cleveland and Mac Jones to the Vikings.
Said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)Hear the original
What Pat Gustavson said
I think it's gonna be Deshaun Watson.
- Where it was said
- Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast)
- The episode
- 2026 NFL Free Agent Preview & Starting QB Predictions for Next Season - Podcast for 2/24
- The original
- Hear the original
- Read it wrong?
- Tell us and we will look
- SaidFeb 24
- GradedAug 13–14
Box score, by kind
HitCloseMissWaiting| Group | Hits | Close | Misses | Waiting | Calls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Depth Chart Calls | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Mock Draft Picks | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trade and Signing Calls | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| All | 10 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
How each call scored
19 checkable claims — 11 depth chart calls, 7 trade and signing calls and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 31 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
10 of 19 have settled so far, averaging 97.5 out of 100, against 92.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Each call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same calls; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Depth Chart Calls9 hits · 2 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Michael Penix Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart
“I see no reason why they don't move forward with him.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 1 difficulty = +8.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Malik Willis to be 1st on the depth chart
“So you I figured that Malik Willis would be, like, kind of a shoe in here with his relationship with Halfley and the Packers. So he's my pick.”
No. 2called No. 1 · by passing yards91.67Hit91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 1 difficulty = −8.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- −8.33
- player:
- Malik Willis
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
C.J. Stroud to be 1st on the depth chart
“Texans, do you see any change for the Texans? No.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- C.J. Stroud
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“So at the end, I'm picking Daniel Jones.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Mac Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think the the Vikings may overwhelm them... I think they're not gonna be able to resist trading their backup quarterback.”
No. 2called No. 1 · by passing yards91.67Hit91.67 − 100 naive = −8.33 × 1 difficulty = −8.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- −8.33
- player:
- Mac Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Tua Tagovailoa to be 1st on the depth chart
“if that's where Tua is gonna wind up, I think it would be Arizona... I'll I'll go two of there.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- MIA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart
“That was my choice as well... I'll I'll I'll go Kyler there.”
No. 2called No. 1 · by passing yards91.67Hit91.67 − 91.67 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- ARI
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kyler Murray
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
TreVeyon Henderson to be 1st on the depth chart
“I'm pretty sure Trevion is ranked higher than Ramondre. Oh, I believe he should be.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by rushing yards100Hit100 − 91.67 naive = 8.33 × 1 difficulty = +8.33 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- TreVeyon Henderson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Aaron Rodgers to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think they kind of hold firm and hang on to Rodgers one more time.”
No. 1called No. 1 · by passing yards100Hit100 − 100 naive = 0 × 1 difficulty = 0 skill
Think this is wrong?How this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Rodgers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Deshaun Watson to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think it's gonna be I think it's gonna be Deshaun Watson.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st on the depth chart
“It's it's our sweet glorious King Fernando. No question about it.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Mock Draft Picks1 hitShow ▸Hide ▾
Ty Simpson to be picked “the last 10 picks of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think he's the kind of guy that a team will jump in the last 10 picks of the first round and take perhaps the Jets.”
Went 13100HitThink this is wrong?How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero credit this far off:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- the last 10 picks of the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
Trade and Signing Calls7 waitingShow ▸Hide ▾
Jauan Jennings to move to Los Angeles Chargers
“Let's bring him and reunite him with his old offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel, on the Los Angeles Chargers.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kenneth Walker III to move
“Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker will not be franchise tags, apparently. And I believe he's gonna go be a Jacksonville Jaguar.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Christian Kirk to move to Miami Dolphins
“Christian Kirk to the Miami Dolphins.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Rashid Shaheed to move to Las Vegas Raiders
“I think Rashid Shahid is gonna follow, Clint Kubiak and go to Las Vegas.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Mac Jones to move to Minnesota Vikings
“I think that even if the 40 say they're not gonna trade Mac Jones, I think the the Vikings may overwhelm them.”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Isaiah Likely to move to Tennessee Titans
“How about we go with the team with the most cap space, the Tennessee Titans, and have them turn Isaiah Likely into a full blown tight end one here?”
—WaitingNot settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- —Waiting
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Who this take is about
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons, Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins, C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans, Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts, Mac Jones, Minnesota Vikings, Tua Tagovailoa, Arizona Cardinals, Kyler Murray, New York Jets, Ty Simpson, TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots, Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Jauan Jennings, Los Angeles Chargers, Kenneth Walker III, Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns, Christian Kirk, Rashid Shaheed, Las Vegas Raiders, Fernando Mendoza, Isaiah Likely, Tennessee Titans, A.J. Brown
Others on the same people
Nate Gosney · Trade and Signing Calls · Daiyan Henley · Miss 0
After the Broncos rescinded the trade, Gosney expects Daiyan Henley to remain with the Chargers for the rest of the 2026 season, but believes the awkward fallout has effectively killed any chance of them signing a new contract with Los Angeles after the season.Logan Lazarczyk · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Ahead of the trade deadline, they float three Raiders moves: shipping Kirk Cousins to Minnesota if the Vikings offer a second-round pick, selling Maxx Crosby to Dallas for a first-rounder plus, and acquiring Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr. for a second- or third-round pick.Charean Williams · Roster Spot Calls · Odell Beckham Jr. · Miss 0
Williams writes that after releasing Odell Beckham Jr. to open a roster spot for Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will bring them back on the practice squad.Alex Curry · Trade and Signing Calls · Kirk Cousins · Hit 100
Curry expects Fernando Mendoza to be taken No. 1 overall by the Raiders and to be thrown into the starting lineup immediately, and they say Kirk Cousins will be released by Atlanta within weeks.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
Nic Bodiford · Depth Chart Calls · Joe Fagnano · Hit 100
Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. They also view Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.Jacob Herlin · Depth Chart Calls · J.J. McCarthy · Hit 100
Herlin published Week 7 fantasy D/ST rankings with projections for 28 team defenses, led by Houston, Minnesota and Cleveland. They also expect Cleveland to post a fourth straight top-10 fantasy defense result, and predicts Jalon Daniels starts another week for Tampa Bay while J.J. McCarthy takes over as the Giants' starter.Jordan Dajani · Depth Chart Calls · Drew Kendall · Miss 0
Dajani expects Cam Jurgens to move back to center as the Ravens' starter after the trade, and projects a rebuilt Eagles offensive line for Week 5 with Jordan Mailata, Willie Lampkin, Drew Kendall, Tyler Steen and Markel Bell starting from left tackle to right tackle.Mike Moraitis · Depth Chart Calls · Tyson Bagent · Miss 0
Previewing the Bears-Packers Week 5 matchup, they state Tyson Bagent will again start at quarterback for Chicago, while framing Green Bay's receivers, pass defense and return game as threats. The rest of the piece is descriptive analysis of season-to-date statistics rather than forecasts of outcomes.