Pat Gustavson· Feb 24, 2026
Gustafson predicted AJ Brown leaves Philadelphia (favoring the Raiders as a fit), assigned free agents to landing spots (Kenneth Walker to Jacksonville, Rashid Shaheed to the Raiders, Juwan Jennings to the Chargers, Isaiah Likely to the Titans, Christian Kirk to the Dolphins), and named his Week 1 quarterbacks including Deshaun Watson for Cleveland and Mac Jones to the Vikings.
“I think it's gonna be Deshaun Watson.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Bran Coverage with BenchwarmerBran (podcast) · read the original →
19 checkable claims — 11 depth chart calls, 7 trade and signing calls and 1 mock draft pick — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing bet.
It names 31 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
10 of 19 have settled so far, averaging 97.5 out of 100, against 92.5 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Their call against what happened
Their call against what actually happened.
Where do you stand? Pick this and every open claim on Picks →
Who this take is about
- Michael Penix Jr.
- Atlanta Falcons
- Malik Willis
- Miami Dolphins
- C.J. Stroud
- Houston Texans
- Daniel Jones
- Indianapolis Colts
- Mac Jones
- Minnesota Vikings
- Tua Tagovailoa
- Arizona Cardinals
- Kyler Murray
- New York Jets
- Ty Simpson
- TreVeyon Henderson
- New England Patriots
- Aaron Rodgers
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Fernando Mendoza
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Deshaun Watson
- Cleveland Browns
- Kenneth Walker III
- Christian Kirk
- A.J. Brown
- Jauan Jennings
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Isaiah Likely
- Tennessee Titans
- Rashid Shaheed
19 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
Michael Penix Jr. to be 1st on the depth chart
“I see no reason why they don't move forward with him.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ATL
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- Michael Penix Jr.
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsMalik WillisMiami DolphinsFeb 24, 2026
Malik Willis to be 1st on the depth chart
“So you I figured that Malik Willis would be, like, kind of a shoe in here with his relationship with Halfley and the Packers. So he's my pick.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- GB
- skill:
- -8.33
- player:
- Malik Willis
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsC.J. StroudHouston TexansFeb 24, 2026
C.J. Stroud to be 1st on the depth chart
“Texans, do you see any change for the Texans? No.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- HOU
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- C.J. Stroud
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsDaniel JonesIndianapolis ColtsFeb 24, 2026
Daniel Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“So at the end, I'm picking Daniel Jones.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- IND
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Daniel Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsMac JonesMinnesota VikingsFeb 24, 2026
Mac Jones to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think the the Vikings may overwhelm them... I think they're not gonna be able to resist trading their backup quarterback.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 100-8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- SF
- skill:
- -8.33
- player:
- Mac Jones
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsTua TagovailoaArizona CardinalsFeb 24, 2026
Tua Tagovailoa to be 1st on the depth chart
“if that's where Tua is gonna wind up, I think it would be Arizona... I'll I'll go two of there.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- MIA
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Tua Tagovailoa
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Depth Chart CallsKyler MurrayNew York JetsFeb 24, 2026
Kyler Murray to be 1st on the depth chart
“That was my choice as well... I'll I'll I'll go Kyler there.”
Hit · 92Scored 91.67a naive guess scored 91.67+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- ARI
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Kyler Murray
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 91.67
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 2
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- Mock Draft PicksTy SimpsonFeb 24, 2026
Ty Simpson to be picked “the last 10 picks of the first round” (picks 1–32)
“I think he's the kind of guy that a team will jump in the last 10 picks of the first round and take perhaps the Jets.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 50How this was scored
- draft:
- 2026
- naive:
- a shuffled mock scores 50
- player:
- Ty Simpson
- season:
- 2025
- zero at:
- 32
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 50
- actual pick:
- 13
- difficulty:
- 1
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- pick accuracy:
- 100
- predicted pick:
- the last 10 picks of the first round (picks 1–32)
- weeks left when called:
- 0
- mock ordering score:
- only one pick — no order to score
TreVeyon Henderson to be 1st on the depth chart
“I'm pretty sure Trevion is ranked higher than Ramondre. Oh, I believe he should be.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 91.67+8.33 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- NE
- skill:
- 8.33
- player:
- TreVeyon Henderson
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 91.67
- position:
- RB
- naive slot:
- 2
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- rushing yards
- the naive guess:
- no prior season — a rookie is assumed to start behind the incumbent
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Aaron Rodgers to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think they kind of hold firm and hang on to Rodgers one more time.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- club:
- PIT
- skill:
- 0
- player:
- Aaron Rodgers
- season:
- 2025
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- position:
- QB
- naive slot:
- 1
- actual slot:
- 1
- difficulty:
- 1
- measured by:
- passing yards
- the naive guess:
- where he sat last season
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- predicted slot:
- 1
- weeks left when called:
- 0
Fernando Mendoza to be 1st on the depth chart
“It's it's our sweet glorious King Fernando. No question about it.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Depth Chart CallsDeshaun WatsonCleveland BrownsFeb 24, 2026
Deshaun Watson to be 1st on the depth chart
“I think it's gonna be I think it's gonna be Deshaun Watson.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Mac Jones to move to Minnesota Vikings
“I think that even if the 40 say they're not gonna trade Mac Jones, I think the the Vikings may overwhelm them.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsKenneth Walker IIIFeb 24, 2026
Kenneth Walker III to move
“Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker will not be franchise tags, apparently. And I believe he's gonna go be a Jacksonville Jaguar.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Christian Kirk to move to Miami Dolphins
“Christian Kirk to the Miami Dolphins.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsA.J. BrownFeb 24, 2026
A.J. Brown to move
“Pat, do you expect AJ Brown back with the Eagles next year? Nope.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Jauan Jennings to move to Los Angeles Chargers
“Let's bring him and reunite him with his old offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel, on the Los Angeles Chargers.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Isaiah Likely to move to Tennessee Titans
“How about we go with the team with the most cap space, the Tennessee Titans, and have them turn Isaiah Likely into a full blown tight end one here?”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Rashid Shaheed to move to Las Vegas Raiders
“I think Rashid Shahid is gonna follow, Clint Kubiak and go to Las Vegas.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- Chris SimmsScore Predictions · Minnesota VikingsHit · 90Simms went through the entire Week 3 slate with straight-up winners and predicted final scores, taking Jacksonville, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Detroit, Houston, Carolina, Kansas City, Seattle, the Giants, Baltimore, New Orleans, Minnesota, San Francisco, Denver and Philadelphia. He also expected Zay Flowers and Puka Nacua to sit, Kyler Murray to play, and said Marvin Harrison Jr. projects as no better than a good No. 2 or high-end No. 3 receiver.
- Steven RuizGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Previewing Week 3, Ruiz picked the Ravens to beat the Cowboys in Brazil, Jacksonville over New England in a low-scoring game, an upset by the Broncos over the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears, the Lions over the Jets, and his Hail Mary that Houston beats Indianapolis by two touchdowns.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · Las Vegas RaidersHit · 100Tice matched his guest on every Week 3 game, picking the Ravens over the Cowboys, the Jaguars over the Patriots in a close game, the Broncos to upset the Rams, the Raiders over the Saints, the Eagles over the Bears and the Lions over the Jets.
- Sam MonsonGame Outcome Picks · Minnesota VikingsHit · 100Monson picked the Chargers to beat the Bills outright (jokingly crediting Buffalo's gray 'Nickel City' jerseys), took the Vikings to win outright in Tampa, and said Seattle would destroy Washington. He also reiterated his Super Bowl pick of Denver over the Rams, called the Dolphins destined for the No. 1 overall pick, and said the Saints are a worst-to-first candidate in the NFC South.
- Nate TiceGame Outcome Picks · New England PatriotsHit · 100Tice picked the Bengals over the Texans in a low-scoring game, the Jaguars at Denver, the Bears over the Vikings, the Patriots over the Steelers and the Rams to edge the Giants, and his Hail Mary was the Cowboys scoring 40 on Washington. He also floated Abdul Carter as a possible All-Pro.
- Carter BahnsRoster Spot Calls · Jeshaun JonesMiss · 0A CBS Sports piece expects suspended Vikings receiver Jeshaun Jones to lose his roster battle and be cut by the Aug. 30 deadline, given Minnesota's established receiver group.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Jonah ColemanMiss · 0In his Week 3 waiver column, Fitzmaurice makes several depth-chart calls around injuries: Jonah Coleman leading Denver's backfield, Marcus Mariota taking over in Washington, Michael Penix Jr. starting once healthy, and Malik Washington serving as Miami's top receiver, plus availability expectations for Detroit's injured safeties.
- Pat FitzmauriceDepth Chart Calls · Rashod BatemanMiss · 0In his Week 2 waiver wire column, Fitzmaurice recommends a slate of pickups he expects to outperform their current rostership (Kaelon Black, Deebo Samuel, Tyler Shough, Geno Smith and others), lays out several depth-chart expectations (Black as the 49ers' No. 2 back, Shedeur Sanders eventually taking over in Cleveland, Penix returning for Atlanta), and flags Fool's Gold/drop candidates such as Mike Gesicki, Kendrick Bourne and Rashid Shaheed.
- Bill HuberDepth Chart Calls · Chris McClellanMiss · 0Huber's first Packers rookie progress report projects second-round cornerback Brandon Cisse to hold onto his spot with the No. 1 defense, third-round defensive tackle Chris McClellan to start in Week 1, and fifth-round lineman Jager Burton to be the team's top interior backup rather than a starter.
- Randy GurziDepth Chart Calls · Jadarian PriceHit · 100Gurzi suggests the Seahawks could sign three free agents — safety Donovan Wilson, guard Kevin Zeitler, and running back Kareem Hunt — if weaknesses show up after Week 1. He also notes Trevon Diggs starting on the practice squad and describes Seattle's projected backfield roles.
- Jeff KerrDepth Chart Calls · Jalyx HuntMiss · 0From an Eagles training camp practice, Kerr projects Willie Lampkin as a possible 53-man roster player, Jalyx Hunt as the likely Week 1 starting edge rusher over Nolan Smith, Byron Young as the No. 4 defensive tackle, Jake Elliott as the uncontested kicker, and Darius Cooper pressuring Hollywood Brown for the WR4 role.
- Tyler SullivanDepth Chart Calls · Drew LockMiss · 0The piece states that with Sam Darnold hurt, Drew Lock will likely start at quarterback for Seattle against Arizona.