Jake Arthur· Nov 7, 2026
Arthur predicted the Cowboys would beat the Colts 31-24 at Lucas Oil Stadium, a closer loss than Indianapolis' recent blowouts, citing Dallas' large talent edge offset by its poor defense. He also made several lineup calls for the game and suggested it could be Jonathan Taylor's last home game as a Colt ahead of the trade deadline.
“So I do have the Cowboys winning 31 to 24.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Locked On Colts (podcast) · read the original →
6 checkable claims — 2 depth chart calls, 1 availability call, 1 game outcome pick, 1 score prediction and 1 trade and signing call — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
It names 6 players and teams, each linked to their own record.
2 of 6 have settled so far, averaging 96.4 out of 100, against 20.4 for a naive guess at the same calls.
Of the 2 unsettled calls enough other pundits have weighed in on, this one lands below the rest of the room on every one.
Where this call stands in the room
C.J. Allen · 2026 season9 calls from 7 pundits between 1 and 1. Jake Arthur said 1. the room's median is 1. not settled yet
Every dot is a call somebody published on the same question. Where the dots land says where this take sits, not whether it is right — nothing here is settled yet. Hover a dot for the name and number; click it to read that take.
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Who this take is about
The game in this take
- Cowboys at Colts 17 calls
6 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing. Game calls show that game’s closing betting line under their grade: a dated fact from nflverse, for context and never part of a grade. MissedTakes takes no bets and earns nothing from any sportsbook.
- Game Outcome PicksDallas CowboysNov 7, 2026
Dallas Cowboys to beat Colts
“Dallas has so much more talent than the Colts do that it's nearly impossible for me to pick to to pick the Colts in this one.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+156 skillHow this was scored
- won:
- DAL
- score:
- 27-23
- skill:
- 156
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- the naive pick:
- IND
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- weeks left when called:
- 10
Closing line (Nov 8): Cowboys by 4.5 · favorite pick, Cowboys about 2 in 3 (66%).
- Score PredictionsDallas CowboysNov 7, 2026
Dallas Cowboys 31 — Colts 24
“So I do have the Cowboys winning 31 to 24. ... Seven point loss, 31 to 24 to the Cowboys. That's what I'm thinking.”
Hit · 93Scored 92.86a naive guess scored 40.82+81.17 skillHow this was scored
- score:
- 27-23
- skill:
- 81.17
- they picked:
- DAL
- season:
- 2026
- accuracy:
- 92.86
- baseline:
- 40.82
- difficulty:
- 1.56
- weeks in the season:
- 18
- actual margin:
- 4
- weeks left when called:
- 10
- naive home margin:
- 0.15
- predicted margin:
- 7
Closing line (Nov 8): Cowboys by 4.5, total 51.5 · this 31–24 calls a bigger Cowboys win (by 7) and more points (55).
- Availability CallsCaleb DownsDallas CowboysNov 7, 2026
“But Downs, one of their more important defenders, he is gonna play in this one. Again, he cleared the concussion protocol.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Trade and Signing CallsJonathan TaylorNov 7, 2026
Jonathan Taylor to move — “might be his last game as a Colt in Lucas Oil Stadium”
“And, you know, this might be Jonathan Taylor's last game as a colt in Lucas Oil Stadium.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
C.J. Allen to be 1st on the depth chart
“We know CJ Allen is gonna start at Mike. He is finally the starting Mike linebacker. He is going to get the green dot responsibilities this week”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
Kapena Gushiken to be 1st on the depth chart
“starting slot defender Justin Wally remains out with his knee injury... Kapena Gushakin will replace him in the lineup.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
What others said about the same people
- John MiddlekauffDraft Bust Calls · Anthony RichardsonHit · 100Middlekoff's bold predictions, as relayed on the show, have the Patriots and Colts making the playoffs; he also argues the Colts whiffed on Anthony Richardson, comparing him to Trey Lance.
- Randy GurziRoster Spot Calls · Jordan HudsonMiss · 0Gurzi predicts the Cowboys' 17-man practice squad, naming each player he expects Dallas to sign, including a surprise addition of released Giants tackle Evan Neal. He also predicts Jaydon Blue will be claimed off waivers by another team and that Sam Williams will land elsewhere.
- Jeff CavanaughRoster Spot Calls · Marist LiufauHit · 100Building his projected Cowboys 53-man roster on defense, Jeff keeps five interior linemen (Kenny Clark, Quentin, Tito Obonia, LT Overton, Bullard), six edge rushers including Von Miller, Malachi Lawrence and Marist Liufau while cutting Sam Williams, four linebackers with Jayshawn Barham starting, six corners including rookie Devin Moore, and four safeties including Marquise Bell.
- Jesse HolleyRoster Spot Calls · Marist LiufauHit · 100Holley expects Jay Toia to stick on the defensive line, Marist Liufau to make the team as a special teamer, Devin Moore to make the roster, and Joe Milton to be the backup quarterback ahead of Sam Howell.
- Moe MotonRoster Spot Calls · Marist LiufauMiss · 0Moton rated Liufau a 9-out-of-10 on his trade probability meter, arguing that with Dallas' crowded edge room he is a long shot to make the 53-man roster and is either a trade or cut candidate.
- Pete PriscoScore Predictions · Dallas CowboysClose · 76Prisco gives score predictions for every Week 9 NFL game, picking the Bengals to rout the Falcons in Madrid, the Cowboys to rebound at Indianapolis, and the Jaguars to win in Baltimore without Lamar Jackson.
More depth chart calls
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jeremy BrenerDepth Chart Calls · Jalen MilroeMiss · 0Brener suggests Seattle may turn to rookie-contract quarterback Jalen Milroe for his first career start in Week 9 against the Cardinals, with Sam Darnold ruled out and Drew Lock dealing with an elbow injury.
- Michael MooreDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersHit · 100In a Week 9 injury roundup, Moore forecast which banged-up fantasy contributors would play or sit: Deshaun Watson, Garrett Wilson, David Montgomery, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, TreVeyon Henderson and Terrance Ferguson are expected out, while Travis Kelce, Saquon Barkley, Michael Wilson, Christian Watson and Emeka Egbuka should play. He also expects Shedeur Sanders and Drew Lock to start at quarterback.
- Zachary PerelesDepth Chart Calls · Shedeur SandersHit · 100Pereles writes that if Deshaun Watson can't clear concussion protocol in time, the Browns would likely turn to second-year quarterback Shedeur Sanders to start Week 9 against the Saints.
- Nic BodifordDepth Chart Calls · Joe FagnanoHit · 100Previewing Week 9 running game matchups, Bodiford expects Jacksonville to win lopsidedly over a depleted Baltimore team, with Bhayshul Tuten sitting out and Chris Rodriguez taking over as lead back, while Joe Fagnano starts at quarterback for the Ravens. He also views Broncos rookie Jonah Coleman as an RB2 going forward.
- Garrett PodellDepth Chart Calls · Carson BeckMiss · 0Podell argues the Cardinals have maxed out with Jacoby Brissett and that rookie Carson Beck should be ramped up to replace him as starter, targeting Week 8 at Dallas for Beck's regular-season debut.
- Jacob HerlinDepth Chart Calls · J.J. McCarthyHit · 100Herlin published Week 7 fantasy D/ST rankings with projections for 28 team defenses, led by Houston, Minnesota and Cleveland. He also expects Cleveland to post a fourth straight top-10 fantasy defense result, and predicts Jalon Daniels starts another week for Tampa Bay while J.J. McCarthy takes over as the Giants' starter.