Comfortably Smug· Nov 8, 2022
Smug predicted Kari Lake would win the Arizona governor's race on the strength of her base turnout, and said Herschel Walker had closed strong enough to win in Georgia.
“Like, she is one of the top candidates in the country. I think she's gonna get there.”
said on air, transcribed by us · Ruthless Podcast · read the original →
2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 50 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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2 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“And he has closed so strong... I thought he found that hole. He cut and now he's got open field. I mean, that guy's gonna get it.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-100 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-senate-ga
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- −100
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Democratic
- result from:
- fec-2022
- who won:
- Raphael Warnock
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
- decided in the:
- runoff
- they said:
- Herschel Junior Walker
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
- Race WinnersNov 8, 2022
“I think the enthusiasm and electricity around her, it feels very different. Like, she is one of the top candidates in the country. I think she's gonna get there.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 0+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- no
- race:
- 2022-governor-az
- election year:
- 2022
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- result from:
- wikipedia-2022-governor
- who won:
- Katie Hobbs
- accuracy:
- 0
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Kari Lake
- days before the vote when called:
- 0
- difficulty:
- 1
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2022-11-08
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.