Armin Thomas· Sep 27, 2024
Thomas argues that increased turnout and registration would not be enough to flip Texas, and cites Split Ticket's own model giving Democratic challenger Colin Allred only a 30% chance of upsetting Ted Cruz in the 2024 Texas Senate race — i.e., Cruz is favored.
“Allred has a 30% chance of an upset, per our modeling”
published in writing · Split Ticket · read the original →
One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.
The call scored 100 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersSep 27, 2024
“Representative Colin Allred is seeking to unseat Senator Ted Cruz — polling shows a race with only a modest Cruz edge, and Allred has a 30% chance of an upset, per our modeling.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 100+0 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-senate-tx
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 0
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- Allred has a 30% chance of an upset, per our modeling
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-senate
- who won:
- Ted Cruz
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 100
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. Senate election in Texas
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Ted Cruz
- days before the vote when called:
- 39
- difficulty:
- 1.05
- the winner's party:
- Republican
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Republican
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
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- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
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