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Fewer than 10 graded articles. Treat this as provisional.
100% of their claims were specific enough to check. Most of what they said committed to something.
hits
misses
Takes in each band
Everyone writing under this banner, pooled into the numbers above. Counted by article, with a paginated series counting once — the same rule used for an individual, from the published methodology.
1–25 of 61
60 / 61
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The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).
Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic
Our final forecast gives Republicans a 73% chance to take the Senate
Republican Tom Barrett is favored to flip MI-07
Our final forecast gives Democrats a 53% chance of retaking the House
In North Carolina, mid-decade redistricting has all but netted the GOP three seats (NC-06, NC-13, NC-14)
substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican
substantial, but not overwhelming, leads in Montana, Texas, Florida, and Nebraska, all of which are rated Leans Republican
Our model has Moreno as the slightest of favorites, with a 56% chance to win
Our model sees this race as Safe Democratic.
Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06
Democrats are strongly favored to pick up AL-02 but even more so LA-06
The seat is currently rated Likely Democratic , with Democrat Laura Gillen expected to notch a comfortable victory on election night.
Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs.
Republicans Marc Molinaro (NY-19) and Brandon Williams (NY-22) are also underdogs. ... In NY-22 , where our model gives Democrats better chances at winning
We expect Democrat Tony Vargas to be carried over the line.
In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)
In California, Democrats are favored to unseat John Duarte (CA-13) and Mike Garcia (CA-27)
The two incumbent Republicans who are favored to lose in tossup races ... are Lori Chavez-DeRemer (OR-05) and David Valadao (CA-22).
a note on Indiana, which remains Likely Republican in our ratings ... partisanship should carry Braun over the top
the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are the most likely to carry her to victory
if we had to pick, we would go with Tilt Republican here
North Carolina, is also home to a Safe Democratic gubernatorial election
where Republican John James is favored to win a rematch against Democrat Carl Marlinga
Democrats in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and possibly Arizona and Nevada, which are all rated Leans Democratic