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Jamie Erdahl#31 of 87 NFL pundits · May 7, 2025

Erdahl went against the group and picked Pittsburgh to win a playoff game before Dallas.

Said on air or in an interview · Move the Sticks (podcast)Hear the original

33Miss · out of 100
Game Outcome PicksThe callsettled
22.92A naive guessthe same call, no knowledge
33.33This callout of 100
#31Jamie Erdahl’s rankof 87 ranked NFL pundits

What Jamie Erdahl said

I think it is going to be Pittsburgh.
Our reading: Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Cowboys
Where it was said
Move the Sticks (podcast)
The episode
GMFB Wednesday Hour 2: Pickens trade, Mystery NFL Mom, and Top 5 Edelman moments!
The original
Hear the original

The page this came from has changed since we captured it on Aug 5, 2026. The quote and evidence here are from our capture, not from what the page says today.

  1. SaidMay 7, 2025
  2. GradedAug 17, 2026

How the call scored

a naive guessbetter than naive

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 33.3 out of 100, against 22.9 for a naive guess at the same calls.

The call is scored 0 to 100 against what happened, on its own, by the published methodology. The naive guess is what knowing nothing would have scored on the same call; the gap, weighted by how hard the call was, is the skill.

  1. Game Outcome PicksPittsburgh Steelers

    Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Cowboys

    VerdictMiss
    33.33Miss · naive 22.92
    33.33this call22.92a naive guess10.41better than naive2difficulty+20.82skill
    How this was scored
    note:
    these two never played, so the pick is graded on the parts of it that happened
    skill:
    20.82
    they picked:
    PIT
    season:
    2025
    ceiling:
    66.67
    accuracy:
    33.33
    baseline:
    22.92
    opponent:
    DAL
    difficulty:
    2
    the naive guess:
    14 of 32 clubs reached the postseason, 8 won a game there
    weeks in the season:
    18
    right opponent:
    no
    weeks left when called:
    18
    picked won aplayoff game:
    no
    picked reached the playoffs:
    yes
    opponent reached the playoffs:
    no
    Think this is wrong?

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