Mary Radcliffe· Sep 30, 2024
Radcliffe said she initially viewed New York's 4th District House race between Laura Gillen and Anthony D'Esposito as a pure toss-up, but after the scandal allegations against D'Esposito she moved the race to lean Democratic.
“my my brain has sort of shifted this race over to lean d in the absence of pulling evidence.”
said on air, transcribed by us · FiveThirtyEight Politics (podcast archive) · read the original →
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The call scored 100 out of 100, against 0 for a naive guess at the same calls.
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1 checkable claim in this take
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- Race WinnersSep 30, 2024
“my my brain has sort of shifted this race over to lean d in the absence of pulling evidence.”
Hit · 100Scored 100a naive guess scored 0+105 skillHow this was scored
- right:
- yes
- race:
- 2024-house-ny-04
- election year:
- 2024
- skill:
- 105
- topic:
- elections
- held going in by:
- Republican
- in their words:
- lean d
- result from:
- wikipedia-2024-house
- who won:
- Laura Gillen
- accuracy:
- 100
- baseline:
- 0
- race name:
- 2024 U.S. House election in New York's district 4
- decided in the:
- general
- they said:
- Laura Gillen
- days before the vote when called:
- 35
- difficulty:
- 1.05
- the winner's party:
- Democratic
- the naive guess:
- the party holding the seat keeps it
- Election Day:
- 2024-11-05
- the result is:
- certified
- the party they named:
- Democratic
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