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Jared Dubin· Oct 5, 2026

Dubin predicts the Saints beat the Falcons in a close Monday night game, 23-20, if New Orleans can avoid turnovers.

“Prediction: Saints 23, Falcons 20”

published in writing · CBS Sports · read the original →

One checkable claim, graded on its own against what actually happened.

The call scored 7.1 out of 100, against 1.6 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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1 checkable claim in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

  • New Orleans Saints 23 — Falcons 20

    “Prediction: Saints 23, Falcons 20”

    Miss · 7Scored 7.14a naive guess scored 1.56+10.21 skill
    How this was scored
    score:
    45-24
    skill:
    10.21
    they picked:
    NO
    season:
    2026
    accuracy:
    7.14
    baseline:
    1.56
    difficulty:
    1.83
    weeks in the season:
    18
    actual margin:
    21
    weeks left when called:
    15
    naive home margin:
    0.66
    predicted margin:
    3

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