Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar· Nov 3, 2022

Going state by state ahead of the midterms, the show said Herschel Walker had the edge to take the most votes on election day in Georgia's Senate race, and that Republicans were in the better position in Nevada, where economic discontent would outweigh Democrats' union advantage.

“But in terms of who has the edge right now to win the most votes on election day looking like Walker.”

said on air or in an interview · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · read the original →

2 checkable claims — 2 race winners — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.

All 2 have settled, averaging 0 out of 100, against 100 for a naive guess at the same calls.

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2 checkable claims in this take

Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.

Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“So yeah, I definitely think you would rather be the Republicans, just because again, economic concerns. Democratic failures to message on economic concerns probably going to override the benefits that they have there in terms of unionization.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-nv
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Catherine Cortez Masto
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Nevada
decided in the:
general
they said:
Adam Paul Laxalt
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?
Race WinnersNov 3, 2022
“But in terms of who has the edge right now to win the most votes on election day looking like Walker... That's where if you know, again, if I had to put my money, that's probably where it would go.”
Miss · 0Scored 0a naive guess scored 100-101 skill
How this was scored
right:
no
race:
2022-senate-ga
election year:
2022
skill:
−101
topic:
elections
held going in by:
Democratic
result from:
fec-2022
who won:
Raphael Warnock
accuracy:
0
baseline:
100
race name:
2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia
decided in the:
runoff
they said:
Herschel Junior Walker
days before the vote when called:
4
difficulty:
1.01
the winner's party:
Democratic
the naive guess:
the party holding the seat keeps it
Election Day:
2022-11-08
the result is:
certified
the party they named:
Republican
Think this is wrong?

More race winners

The same kind of call, about other players and teams.