Kyle Kondik· Sep 29, 2026
The Crystal Ball shifted eleven House races and two governor's races toward Democrats amid a bad polling month for Republicans, newly making VA-2 and PA-7 Leans Democratic, downgrading several Trump-won GOP seats, and keeping Republicans favored but less secure in the Vermont and Nebraska governorships. Its overall tallies show 213 House seats at least Leans Democratic and a Senate balanced on a knife's edge, with Democratic odds in Alaska and Ohio now slightly better than even.
“For us, Senate control is positioned right on the edge of the butter knife.”
published in writing · Sabato's Crystal Ball (UVA Center for Politics) · read the original →
23 checkable claims — 19 race winners and 4 seat counts — each graded on its own rather than as one all-or-nothing call.
None of them have settled yet — they grade once their results are in.
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23 checkable claims in this take
Each one is scored on its own against the published methodology. A pundit naming several outcomes is graded on each, not on all-or-nothing.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“we are making Rep. Derek Tran (D, CA-45), who won his seat in one of 2024's closest contests, a clearer favorite”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsSep 29, 2026
“SENATE : 48 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 5 Toss-ups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsSep 29, 2026
“HOUSE : 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“we are also moving 4 other districts that backed Trump in 2024 from Likely Republican down to Leans Republican. In Kentucky's Lexington-centered 6th District...”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“NC-3 and OH-15 both move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“While Gov. Jim Pillen (R) remains favored over former state Sen. Lynne Walz (D) in polls... We are moving the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“While we still call them Toss-ups, Democratic odds in Alaska and Ohio are probably now a little north of 50-50.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“Not surprisingly, the poll found Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) as a prohibitive favorite for reelection”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“We are moving VA-5 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“We are moving PA-7 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“we rate the most marginal of those, VA-7, as Likely Democratic”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“we are also moving 4 other districts that backed Trump in 2024 from Likely Republican down to Leans Republican... Rep. Ann Wagner (R, MO-2) was also hurt to some extent”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“Although we'd be shocked if he lost, we are making Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) a less secure favorite... We are moving the race down to Likely Republican”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D, MO-5) was the major beneficiary of the high court's intervention by being restored to a Safe Democratic seat”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“the Crystal Ball moved Michigan's Senate race from Toss-up into the Leans Democratic category, where it joined New Hampshire”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“NC-3 and OH-15 both move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“In July, we moved Maine's open 2nd District from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. Today, we are reversing that change”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsSep 29, 2026
“HOUSE : 213 at least Leans D, 202 at least Leans R, 20 Toss-ups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Seat CountsSep 29, 2026
“SENATE : 48 at least Leans D, 47 at least Leans R, 5 Toss-ups.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“we are also moving 4 other districts that backed Trump in 2024 from Likely Republican down to Leans Republican... Finally, an independent poll of Montana's 1st District”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“we are moving VA-2 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, as we ultimately think Kiggans will have a hard time fighting against the wave against former Rep. Elaine Luria (D)”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“moved Michigan's Senate race from Toss-up into the Leans Democratic category, where it joined New Hampshire”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
- Race WinnersSep 29, 2026
“While we still call them Toss-ups, Democratic odds in Alaska and Ohio are probably now a little north of 50-50.”
Not settled yet. This is graded once the result is in.
More race winners
The same kind of call, about other players and teams.
- Jim GeraghtyRace WinnersMiss · 0Geraghty said Republicans would clearly win the House, but with a majority in the twenties rather than a 40-50 seat wave, and that the GOP would take the Senate by about one seat. He called Budd, Vance and Johnson winners in their Senate races, Kiggans a winner in Virginia's 2nd, Fetterman the likely winner in Pennsylvania, Laxalt the safer GOP bet in Nevada, and liked Walker's odds in a Georgia runoff.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersHit · 100Kelly predicted Republicans would win control of the House, that Ron Johnson would hold Wisconsin given Mandela Barnes' record on crime, and that JD Vance would win in Ohio.
- Tom BevanRace WinnersHit · 100Bevan said Republicans would still take the House and would win the Senate by a margin of one or two seats, that Oz would fall short in Pennsylvania, and gave expected winning margins of roughly eight points for Vance in Ohio, about five for Budd in North Carolina, and a very narrow Walker edge in Georgia.
- Dennis PragerRace WinnersMiss · 0Asked who a Georgia Senate runoff would favor, Prager said it would favor Herschel Walker, because the contest would effectively be about control of the Senate.
- Megyn KellyRace WinnersMiss · 0Kelly said the worst case for Republicans was taking only the House, predicted Lee Zeldin would win the New York governor's race, and agreed the New Hampshire Republican Senate candidate would win.
- Matt ContinettiRace WinnersHit · 100Continetti forecast a big Republican night: a House gain of 20 to 30 seats or more and three to four Senate pickups, with Ron DeSantis reelected in Florida.